It came on the heels of a survey on Tuesday showing manufacturing activity tumbled to a more than 10-year low in September. The reports added to cooling consumer spending in suggesting that the economy was losing momentum, though a recession is probably not on the horizon. The economy's darkening outlook was also underscored by another report on Wednesday showing a measure of current business conditions in New York City dropped to a 40-month low in September.
The longest economic expansion on record, now in its 11th year, is losing ground with the blame largely put on a 15-month trade war between the United States and China, which has eroded business confidence. Private employers added 135,000 jobs in September, the ADP National Employment report showed. Data for August was revised downward to show private payrolls increasing by 157,000 jobs instead of the previously reported 195,000 positions. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment rising by 140,000 jobs in September.
According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 145,000 jobs in September, after rising 130,000 in August. Job gains have averaged 158,000 per month this year, above the roughly 100,000 needed each month to keep up with growth in the working age population. The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 3.7% for a fourth straight month.
The ADP report showed employment in the goods-producing sector increased by 8,000 jobs in September. Manufacturing payrolls rose by 2,000 jobs last month and construction added 9,000 positions. Natural resources and mining shed 3,000 jobs. The services sector added 127,000 jobs last month, with gains concentrated in education and health services, professional and business services, and trade, transportation and utilities industries.
In a separate report on Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management-New York current business conditions index dropped to a reading of 42.8 last month, the lowest since May 2016, from 50.3 in August. Businesses were also downbeat about the outlook over the next six months. The survey's six-month outlook gauge tumbled 26.2 points to 45.2 in September, the lowest reading since February 2009. Its employment measure dropped to a 19-month low of 52.5 from 69.0 in August.