The Indian 'invasion' of Kashmir on 5th August is based on the following 'TIME' exigencies. The Babus in Islamabad and elsewhere should pay heed.
1. The BJP elections.
Modi won an outright majority in the recent elections. His main platform was 'PAKI BASHING'. Once elected, he had to show some 'Macho'. But in the scenario, the invasion of Kashmir was not on the immediate agenda. But it was always on the Back Burner.
2. IK Visit to the USA.
When IK visited the USA in end July, he received a rousing welcome. But the tipping point was reached when President Trump offered to mediate. Suddenly, Indian Deep State went into a panic mode. A bilateral issue was going international. If Trump were to really mediate, India, perforce would have to show some cooperation. The Indian High Command made a move on 5 August This is a bargaining ploy. If the international weather gets rough, and Trump applies pressure, the Indians can just slide back. To square one. Nothing to lose. Also satisfying Trump and the world with their compliance. Boris Kasparov would approve.
3. The IK long-term threat.
The Indians were extremely disheartened when PML-N and the PPP were sidelined in the 2018 elections in Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif and PML-N were compliant partners. They pursued no aggressive designs or agenda against India. The Mission Statement of the Nawaz family is to be the 'Merchants' to Indian business interests. Zardari is also a cooperative person. It helps that the Indian Deep State knows where the ill-acquired assets of the above two are buried. A subtle mention occasionally, keeps them in line (Nawaz & Zardari). Come IK and the Indians lose all leverage. IK is an independent thinker. He has no baggage that the Indians can exploit. IK has a brand equity that can open all doors, internationally. The Tea Boy from Gujarat, Modi, does not have the same Brand Outreach. The final nail in the coffin was that the military establishment and IK's government were in sync (on the same page to use the current jargon). This is anathema to Indians who have always exploited the military/government divide. The Indian Deep State realizes that 5 years of IK government will strengthen Pakistan. Another 5 years will make Pakistan impregnable. All stops have been pulled out to dethrone IK. August 5th is the beginning of the beginning.
(The writer is the former Executive Director of the Management Association
of Pakistan)