According to Power Purchase Forecast for FY20 prepared by the Central Power Purchasing Agency Guaranteed (CCPA-G), the share of uranium consumed by power generation will be 6.22 percent in the total generation in 2020-21, 10.73 percent in 2021-22, 14.39 percent in 2022-23, 13.77 percent in 2023-24 and 13.60 percent in 2024-25.
The optimum energy mix as per projected via Stochastic Duel Dynamic Programming (SDDP) for least cost economic dispatch indicates that the share of renewable energy will increase from 2.79 percent in 2019-20 to 6.14 percent by 2024-25 whereas hydel generation will decrease to 26.16 percent by 2024-25 from 26.86 percent in 2019-20. The share of power generation from natural gas is projected to decline from 16.41 percent in 2019-20 to 7.10 percent in 2024-25. The share of Re-gasified Liquefied Natural Gas (RLNG) will also reduce from 4.46 percent in 2019-20 to 0.57 percent in 2024-25.
The Power Purchase forecast report further states that the share of imported coal in power generation will also decline from 17.73 percent in 2019-20 to 12.70 percent in 2024-25.
However, the share of local coal in power generation will increase from zero per cent in 2019-20 to 15.19 percent in 2024-25 while share of Residual Fuel Oil (RFO) will reduce to 0.17 percent from 3.09 percent during the five years period. Usage of High Speed Diesel (HSD) has been projected at zero.
The CPPA-G has also projected that the share of baggasse consumption in power generation will increase to 2.80 percent in total generation from 0.84 percent.
The share of RLNG (new) will slash from 21.18 percent in 2019-20 to 15.03 percent in 2024-25.
Electricity import mainly from Afghanistan will decline from 0.34 percent to 0.27 percent while share of mix (captive) will decline from 0.33 per cent to 0.26 per cent.
The demand forecast has been predicted on the basis of Power Market Survey Methodology and the model used is Power Market Survey (PMS) model. This model is a form of end use model which provides energy and power projection for the system, all Discos and all substations within each Disco. It starts to forecast from the tariff-wise energy consumption at feeder level of a Disco collected by the respective Disco.
According to the monthly Power Purchase Price (PPP) projections, it will increase by about 22 percent average from Rs 9.93 per unit in July 2019 to Rs 12.10 per unit in June 2020. Power Purchase Price based on two components i.e. Energy Purchase Price (EPP) and Capacity Purchase Price (CPP).
The projected PPP for the entire year 2019-2020 is as follows: (i) July 2019 - Rs 9.93 per unit; (ii) August 2019 - Rs 9.72 per unit; (iii) September 2019 - Rs 10.35 per unit; (iv) October 2019 - Rs 12.69 per unit; (v) November 2019- Rs 13.61 per unit; (vi) December, 2019- Rs 13.60 per unit; (vii) January 2020- Rs 14.47 per unit; (viii) February 2020 - Rs 14.23 per unit; (ix) March 2020 - Rs 13.42 per unit; (x) April 2020 - Rs 13.20 per unit; (xi) May 2020 - Rs 12.26 per unit; and (xii) June 2020 - Rs 11.62 per unit.
During the entire financial year 2019-20, total EPP has been calculated at Rs 737.986 billion and CPP Rs 907.174 billion, totaling to Rs 1.654,160 trillion.
The major portion of the end-consumers that the major portion of the end-consumer tariff comprises of in the PPP picks up around 80-85 percent of the per unit rate of the end consumer.
