The secret meeting in Camp David seems to be another milestone in a relationship beset with hiding facts, bitter and deadly conspiracies, and claims of double bluffs and deception. The basic ingredient missing historically in failed peace settlement was trust and is now compounded to a distrust level where even when the principles of the peace deal seem finalized the reality in practice is contrary. The fact that both parties have not issued cease-dialogue orders and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said that talks can be resumed if things improve means that the seesaw of an inconvenient partnership may take an upward swing in the future.
The talks are stormed with many problems and unless these are solved the deal may not take place and if the deal does take place it will not find its execution and implementation easy. The major challenges facing the talks are:
1. Stakeholder Consensus: The most difficult part of the deal is not only signing the deal but making the deal implementable. The stakeholder consensus is important, but even more urgent and emergent is the definition of the stakeholders. The most glaring example is that the Afghan government is not part of this dialogue. Rightly or wrongly they are a stakeholder and if they are not part of it they will try to defeat it to prove themselves right. Also within Taliban there are factions that are both in favour and against the deal. Other insurgents are unengaged and ready to disrupt the peace process. A US report said there were about 20 prominent militant groups active in Afghanistan. These include ISIS-K, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al-Qaeda, the Islamic Emirate High Council and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. This makes it difficult to determine who is responsible for the continuous attacks.
2. Post Withdrawal Execution: Once the deal is done, which is taking years, but still is the easier part, the execution is the big elephant which few are addressing currently. The bitter aftermath of US withdrawal after the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan is still reverberating. The capacity of the Afghan forces to deal with the post-withdrawal repercussions is at best questionable. The US, meanwhile, is constantly reducing the number of forces to remain post- withdrawal. The latest figure is 8600. The Afghan government is already predicting that the dialogue will be disastrous for Afghanistan. India has backed the Afghan government and does not want the talks to go through as Pakistan gets a prominent stake and role in it. This role may be a blow to India's policy of isolating Pakistan and pinning every attack in India and the occupied Kashmir on Pakistan.
3. Public Support: The people of Afghanistan have seen too much and suffered at the hands of nearly every stakeholder. They have been fending foreign attacks, Taliban attacks and a government that has neither the capacity nor the courage to take up any warring faction. This has reduced Afghanistan into a battleground for all who want to take advantage of its fragmented political structure. A war to eliminate terror and terrorists has done more damage to the civilians than to the terrorists or armed forces. A UN release earlier this year said that 2018 saw the highest number of civilians killed in Afghanistan's war than any other year on record. The main brunt of this war has been felt by the people of the country in the form of deaths in bombing, land mines and almost non-existent governance and development
Will the peace dialogue resume? The answer is in the affirmative. Despite the desperation of the Americans, the unreliability of the Taliban, the uncooperativeness of the Afghan government and the regional politics of India being ingredients for making the peace process more violent than more peaceful, it will resume. The pre-peace actions and statements by the US government indicate towards resumption. Michael Bolton was removed from the job of National Security Advisor because he was against the dialogue, while Mike Pompeo has given a more soft posture on peace process. Trump has to win an election next year and to win an election he has to win a peace deal.
A deal is not the end but just the beginning. What they need is a three- pronged Peace Implementation. Firstly, engaging the non-engaged-Afghan government and other opposing groups is a major pre-requisite. The US needs to play a part in this settlement too. Secondly, capacity building of the Afghan security forces with the help of more capable neighbours like Pakistan. Thirdly, a focus on human development and education so that the years of war bred reactionary mindset of Afghan public is changed over time.
Talks have to resume. Dialogue has to begin. Conflicts have to be resolved. War has to end. Over the past five years, more than 45,000 Afghan troops and police officers were killed. A UN report found that in the first six months of this year, 3,812 civilians were killed or injured, including 1,207 children. Continued war could also lead to the production of illegal drugs and drive more Afghans to seek refuge abroad creating a higher refugee crisis.
For the Americans, it has been a lose-lose game. Since the war began in 2001, more than 2,400 Americans have been killed and some 20,000 injured. More than 1,100 Nato troops have also been killed. The war has cost the United States a total of $975 billion. On top of that, medical care and disability payments for veterans will cost an estimated $1 trillion over the next forty years. A war against terror has become a war for terror. To stop the terror, war must stop, talks must resume as they are the only chance for peace for millions in the region and the world at large.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])