In the EU's largest producer France, a big, good quality crop is expected with little impact from the summer heatwave. France's farm ministry raised its 2019 soft wheat crop estimate to a four-year high of 38.2 million tonnes, 12% above last year. Most market estimates remain higher at around 39 million tonnes, which would be the second-largest crop on record.
"We knew this year's crop had good yield potential but there had been concern about dry conditions after winter," said Nathan Cordier of consultancy Agritel, which estimates the crop at 39.17 million tonnes.
Harvest yields suggested record-breaking temperatures in late June and late July, along with developing drought, had little impact on wheat.
Rain since last week has held up final wheat harvesting in northern France but is not expected to affect overall results.
France's soft wheat harvest was already 98% complete by Aug. 5 and shows a reasonable quality.
Germany's 2019 wheat harvest will be 17.5% larger than 2018 at 23.81 million tonnes despite the early summer heatwave which stressed some crops, Germany's association of farm cooperatives estimates.
Germany's harvest is over 90% complete but persistent rain in the last fortnight has stopped completion of the last 10% in the north.
"We mostly had showers which wheat has been able to shake off but there could be quality loss unless the rain stops in the next week," one German analyst said.
Rain in Britain has also slowed the harvest and led to concerns about the quality of this year's crop.
"The UK wheat crop was full of promises with timely rain in June followed by warmth and sun in July. However, the milling quality is now at risk due to the ongoing showers," said Ben Bodart of CRM AgriCommodities. More showers are forecast in Britain in coming days, frustrating farmers who have so far only managed to harvest a small proportion of the wheat crop.
Trade forecasts for this year's crop range from about 15.0 million to 15.5 million tonnes with early yields in some areas exceeding expectations. Last year's UK crop was 14.0 million tonnes. In Poland, wheat harvesting is practically finished in southern and central regions but harvesters are still rolling in the north, said Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska.
"Based on our estimates, about 85% of wheat has been already cut," he said.
Sabaranski forecasts Poland's crop at 10.7 million tonnes, up 8% from 2018.