A sustained deficit in supply was likely to widen this year as stricter emissions standards increase demand for catalytic converters, Britain-based autocatalyst manufacturer Johnson Matthey said last week. Adding to an already strained supply scenario for palladium, was the likelihood of an improvement in demand from the auto sector, given the expectations of a US-China trade deal materializing, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities in Toronto.
"If we were already high and tight when the demand environment didn't look all that promising, we are certainly going to get tighter when demand improves," he said. A new round of trade talks between Washington and Beijing was scheduled for Tuesday. While both platinum and palladium are primarily used by automakers in catalytic converters, platinum is more heavily used in diesel vehicles, which have fallen out of favour since Volkswagen's emissions-rigging scandal broke in 2015.
Unlike platinum, palladium has benefited from the switch away from diesel engines and expectations for growth in hybrid electric vehicles, which tend to be partly gasoline-powered. This has helped cushion the metal from falling car sales globally. However, analysts said palladium has risen too fast too soon and was bound for a correction. "Palladium is a bubble and is moving much above what fundamentals suggest," said Gianclaudio Torlizzi, managing director at consultancy T-Commodity in Milan.
Meanwhile, the dollar backed away from a two-month high hit last week on increasing optimism for a breakthrough in the trade talks, bolstering appeal for gold. Spot gold gained 1.1 percent to $1,340.36 per ounce, having earlier touched its highest since April 20 at $1,341.18. US gold futures climbed 1.6 percent to $1,343.4. Among other precious metals, platinum gained 1.6 percent at $814.50 per ounce, while silver rose 1.2 percent to $15.99.