But in 2018 Brazil's exporters increased soya sales in the wake of a record crop and strong appetite from China, which turned to South America for supplies amid a trade war with the United States. In addition, a drought in 2018 caused corn crop failure, affecting export volumes out of Brazil, the world's second largest corn exporter after the United States.
According to government data, by the third week of January Brazil's corn exports had totaled 2.80 million tonnes. Based on data from shipping agency Williams, another 740,500 tonnes are scheduled for shipment through the end of the month. As such, some 3.55 million tonnes of corn will be shipped abroad compared with a projected 2.5 million tonnes for soyabeans. "As 2018 was a year in which exporting soyabeans was the priority, the window to export corn was pushed back. In fact, it was pushed back more than we thought," said Victor Ikeda, an analyst with Rabobank.
The situation illustrates how the trade war meddles with grain export flows. In 2017, Brazilian corn exports outpaced those of soyabeans between September and December. Thanks to Brazil's abundant second corn crop, the nation has replaced leading Northern Hemisphere exporters in the global corn market, from September to January.
In the first three weeks of January, Brazil's soyabean exports were 1.34 million tonnes, according to the government. Another 1.21 million tonnes are scheduled for shipment through Jan. 31, Williams data show.
In spite of corn outpacing soya exports in January, the 2.5 million tonne projection for the oilseed will mark a record for the first month of the year, according to government data.
Brazil could export between 70 and 71 million tonnes of soyabeans this year, and 30 million tonnes of corn, according to Rabobank forecasts. Last year, Brazil's soyabean exports were about 84 million tonnes and corn exports reached 23 million tonnes, lower than in the previous season due to a drought that cut supplies.