As the two most unpopular US Presidential candidates in the last three decades, were to debate, the American people remained polarised and uncertain, with a high percentage of Republicans believing in the isolationism that Trump is trumpeting, including outlandish promises such as making a wall on the Mexican border and banning Muslims from USA. During the first 20 minutes of the debate, Trump was in his element even though Hillary held her own, during the next hour Trump's shortcomings were glaringly exposed.
That Trump would be unpredictable and without real answers to questions put to him was to be expected. Trump has been and remains constantly evasive about how he would carry out his grandiose plans with no substance in his explanations. Moderator Lester Holt not only failed to stop Trump from interrupting Clinton a number of times while she was speaking, he did not press for answers as he should have. Those facts-checking after the debate found 80% of Trump's claims to be false. He has still managed to increase his support, his gung-ho style and his extreme views has clearly caught the imagination of a majority of white males.
Hillary Clinton's insider's experiences as First Lady and as Secretary of State has given her the steely resolve quite visible during the debate. To her detriment she comes with considerable baggage of her own, including the 33000 emails deleted from her private account. Fully 55% of those polled did not trust Hilary Clinton. Trump offered to release his Federal tax information if she releases the deleted E Mails. Trump has something to hide, maybe he is not as rich as he claims, maybe it will expose him business dealings with countries unfriendly to the US. For a man profess to be an extraordinary businessman, his companies have declared bankruptcy 6 times was Hillary's riposte.
It is quite surprising that few voters feel any excitement about the outcome of the US Presidential Elections. A small minority of all registered voters say they would be excited if either Trump or Clinton won, far more say they would feel more relieved than excited if their candidate wins. From the Trump camp some did criticise the moderator Lester Holt for being more assertive on Trump than Clinton. Despite Trump interruptions (at least 13 times in the first 20 minutes) Hilary managed to corner Donald Trump on a number of issues, viz race relations, personal taxes, the birther lie, a viable economic plan, etc. Hillary Clinton successfully laid open Trump's vicious misogyny and his history of racism and discrimination, repeating the accusation that he has supposedly scammed and/or defrauded ordinary people during his business ventures.
Trump camp had earlier deliberately lowered the public expectations about Trump's performance during the debate citing Hillary Clinton's long experience in politics and administration, in fact pushing up the bar higher for her. Trump had demolished all his Republican opponents during the Primaries by being outright rude and offensive, almost all polls post-debate agreed that Hilary overshadowed Trump without actually delivering a knock-out blow. However she still has to create an emotional bond with voters who may not like Trump and will not vote for him but do not like her enough to vote for her.
Over lunch, Frank Neuman patiently spelt out the logic and the reasons why Trump would win. With Republican voters full of anger against the establishment, the white identity politics in the US remains solid for Trump. The share of white voters has come down from 69% to about 67%. Hispanic, Black, and Asian voter share have in the meantime grown. The 10.7 million voters include a large majority of non-white groups. Trump would have to win by unprecedented margins among whites to win many States, he would have to get out the Republican vote with many turned off on him. Still he will likely get nearly 65% of the white male vote, moreover the Evangelicals are almost solid for him. To offset this Hilary must win an equal percentage of the white female vote, likely given Hilary's successfully portraying of Trump as someone not only disparaging about women but with contempt for minorities. If Trump loses 87% of Latino voters nation-wide, the Democrats will add 8 million more popular votes.
Before the debate most national surveys show disapproval among Black Americans in the 80% to 90% range. No Republican has secured more than 15 % of the black vote in 60 years. Trump needs to crack 15% with Blacks to win critical swing states, 127 million voters cast their vote during the 2012 elections (Obama 65.9 million, Romney 60.9 million), 93 million people eligible did not vote. Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson taking away 11%, mostly from Clinton, Trump could win like Bill Clinton did against Bush in 1992 with only 38% of the vote because Ross Perot took away 19%. The Democrats must get Bernie Sanders to get out the youth vote on November 8, 2016. In support of Hillary First Lady Michelle Obama, hugely popular among the youth, has hit their campaign trail.
Astute political observer, Frank Neuman comes up with more than 272 electoral votes needed to win. He acknowledges Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Michigan will be close but still Trump territory. He counts Florida going to Trump. While respecting Frank's command of facts and his logic thereof one feels that this is still Hilary Clinton's Presidency to lose, that she must really stumble big time before November 8 not to win the US Presidency. However another major terrorist attack in the US could be fatal for her candidacy.
After the first debate CNN scored 72% for Hillary Clinton and 27% for Trump. As seen in the Primaries, Trump's gaffes and lack of substance do not matter, neither do the debate polls. Even though the Emperor has no clothes, what matters is what the electorate thinks on November 8 to be the right person who will do best for them as the President of the US.
(The writer is a defence and security analyst)