The PPPP is avoiding holding public meetings not only because of threats but also to avoid the wrath of angry party workers who have been denied party tickets and also the common people who are not happy with party's last five year's performance. It is also heavily relying on extensive advertising both on electronic and print media.
While May 11 is just nine days away, the election time din and thunder is missing. Except for a few public meetings organised by political parties, that too mostly in Punjab, the usual hullabaloo is seen nowhere indicating, at least so far, that the otherwise a lively occasion may turn out into a lackluster affair.
To the extent of Karachi and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, at least, people are living in constant fear. Bomb blasts and targeted killings have cast a shadow of gloom and people are keeping their fingers crossed hoping that better sense would prevail among the perpetrators of criminal activities and refrain from aimlessly shedding human blood. In view of agonising law and order situation, where death and destruction looms large, it would be indeed courageous on the part of people to come out in large numbers to cast their votes.
Except for some areas where party flags have been put up, the city is quiet and does not seem to be very enthusiastic about the elections. PPPP, MQM and ANP the three main stakeholders who are under threat from extremists are moving cautiously. Even if May 11 passes on peacefully, political pundits fear that post-election scenario may turn out to be painful. Ground realities show that none of the political parties would emerge as clear winners which will lead to hung-parliament and divided interests.
The main battle ground will be Punjab where PTI and PML-N are dominating the election campaigns. It is indeed creditable that PTI chief Imran Khan is single handedly facing Sharif brothers who have put up 11 of their close relatives to contest for provincial assembly and National Assembly seats to ensure the family's dominance in the game of politics.
On the other hand, PPPP which claimed to wield influence and public support in all the provinces is, much to the surprise of party workers, almost non-existent in Punjab whereas is Sindh which is its main power base instead of going public it is operating in a low key mode. The award of party tickets to influential feudal and tribal personalities at the cost of Jiyalas makes it obvious that PPP's focus is mainly on retaining the traditional seats which the landed aristocracy wins on the strength of captive votes.
In this connection, we can put here the example of Benazirabad District where PPPP has given all the tickets to those who are doing "family politics" to continue their ancestral tradition of "ruling the people" and the second example of District Naushehroferoze where PPPP allocated tickets to 'Pirs and Syeds' who ruled the people for the past decades and National Peoples Party (NPP), the main rival of PPPP there has also allocated tickets to their family heavyweights.
For instance, on NA-213 (Benazirabad/old Nawabshah): PPPP allocated ticket to Dr Azra Fazal Pechuho, the elder of sister of President Asif Ali Zardari, she was twice elected as an MNA from this seat. Ten-Party-Alliance's Zahid Hussein Shah, who basically is affiliated with PML-F, has been emerged as major rival of Ms Pechuho on this constituency. A total of 3,69,430 votes are registered in this big constituency of Benazirabad.
Local political observers are seeing the situation not so tough as rival candidate has not such type of say in the constituency through which he can defeat the sister of President Zardari. NA-214: PPPP's Syed Ghulam Mustafa Shah has succeeded to get the ticket again as he was the MNA in last National Assembly from the same seat. Nisar Keerio, the candidate of the 10-Party-Alliance basically belongs to Sindh Taraqi Pasand Party (STP) and Asghar Rind, an independent candidate, are the major rival of Shah but local political observers are also seeing a situation similar to the one in NA-213 as rival candidates lack enough public support to defeat the PPPP's Syed despite the fact that opposition sympathy vote is available in this constituency just as it is available all over the province.
There are a total of 2,89,879 registered voters in this constituency. PS-24 (Nawabshah-I): This is the provincial assembly's seat of Nawabshah city, where from PPPP's Tariq Masood Arain was elected as MPA during the 2008 elections. The party has again fielded this man for the same seat. Here MQM's Asim Kabeer has emerged as his major rival who can maneuver a big chunk of votes out of a total 1,52,620 registered votes.
Local political observers are claiming that though there is no open seat-adjustment between MQM and PPPP, but insiders are trying to persuade the PPPP leadership to give this seat to MQM's man. If a deal could be finalised, than may be Muttahida's man win the seat other vice there are clear chances of Arain to become MPA one more time.
PS-25 (Nawabshah-II): In a move to continue the decades-old tradition of family politics, PPPP leadership has given the ticket to Saleem Raza Jalbani, a son of Ahmed Ali Khan Jalbani who remained MPA from this seat in last assembly. PML-F's Bagh Ali Shah, who is also the joint candidate of Ten-Party-Alliance, and Meenhan Khan Rind, a central leader of PPP-SB, are major contenders on this seat.
There are 1,33,799 registered voters in this constituency. PS-26 (Nawabshah-III): PPPP's Syed Faseeh Shah is again contesting election on party ticket. He is facing PML-F's Zahid Hussein Shah and MQM's Inayat Rind as major candidates. There are a total of 1,25,428 registered voters here. Local political observers said that they expected to see a tough competition between the two "Syeds" on this seat.
PS-27 (Nawabshah-IV): On this constituency, PPPP has given ticket to Ghulam Qadir Chandio who remained MPA thrice from this seat. Chandio is said to have a "good say" and people hold his public welfare projects in high esteem. Syed Zain Shah, the grandson of GM Syed (the Founder of Jeay Sindh Movement) has emerged as Chandio's major rival. Shah is running on a ticket of Sindh United Party (SUP) and has the support of the 10-Party-Alliance.
Syed Zain Shah was the Chairman of Jeay Sindh Mahaz (a faction of Jeay Sindh Movement), when Jalal Mehmood Shah decided to enter Parliamentary politics by establishing SUP. Zain merged his nationalist party in it. In 2008, Zain Shah also contested the elections for the same seat but was defeated by PPPP's Ghulam Qadir Chandio. There are a total of 1,24,721 voters in this constituency.
Local observers claim that PPPP candidates is in a better position than Zain Shah. PS-28 (Nawabshshah-V): This is only provincial assembly seat in the district where PPPP struck a bargain with their old rivals Dr Khan Mohammad Dahri and Dr Bahadur Dahri, who were in PML-Q during the Musharraf regime.
After the formation of the PPP-led coalition government, Khan Mohammad went into self-exile. He remained in the UAE during the past five years while Bahadur Dahri joined PML-N. When, Khan Mohammad returned, he joined PPPP along with his cousin Bahadur and they were promised one ticket and a portfolio of an advisor. Bahadur got the ticket.
Now, on this seat, Dr Bahadur Dahri is a PPPP candidate and Ghulam Haider Rahu, an independent candidate, is his major rival. There are a total of 1,22,741 votes registered here. Local political observers believe that Dahri is in a stronger position than Rahu. Sardar Jam Tamachi Unarr, who was elected MPA from this seat in 2008 and remained Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC), lost party-ticket this time.
Naushehro Feroze District: PPPP is facing tough competition on all seven seats, including two National Assembly and five provincial assembly seats. This district is considered to be a stronghold of National Peoples Party (NPP). NA-211: PPPP's Zulifqar Behan, son of a veteran Jiyala Rehmatullah Behan who defeated late Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi in 1988, is facing Ghulam Murtaza Khan Jatoi, the elder son of late Jatoi.
Jatois have a strong grip in their home district. However, these heavyweights had lost the seat in the 2008 elections because of sympathy vote after Benazir Bhutto's assassination. However, even back then, the Jatois retained two provincial assembly and one National Assembly's seats. NA-212: Tough competition is likely between PPPP's Syed Asghar Ali Shah and NPP's Aqib Khan Jatoi, who remained District Nazim of Naushehro Feroze twice.
However, there are 19 other candidates, including Syed Zafar Ali Shah of PML-N. However, local observer believe that the main contest would be between natural rivals, PPPP and NPP. PS-19: NPP's Aqib Khan Jatoi is also contesting election on this seat from where PPPP's Mumtaz Chandio is facing him. Although, Chandio is a new entrant in politics but he can give tough time to Jatoi because he is well known as an active social worker.
PS-20: PPPP has fielded Murad Ali Shah while NPP allocated ticket to Asif Ali Shah.
PS-21: PPPP's Sarfraz Shah, who won bye-election on this seat and became MPA, has been given party ticket in this election. NPP's Syed Ibrar Shah is his major rival. PML-N candidate Syed Munawar Shah is also among strong contenders on this seat, but the actual competition would be between PPPP and NPP contenders.
PS-22: Tough competition is also likely between PPPP's Sattar Rajpar and NPP's "angry young man" Arif Mustafa Jatoi. There are, however, 20 other candidates, including MQM's Abdul Waheed Abbasi, are also in the run for this provincial assembly seat. PS-23: An NPP heavyweight, Masroor Khan Jatoi, is facing PPPP's Feroz Jamali here, but local observers believe that Jatoi has an edge over Jamali and he could easily win the seat.