The main, centre-south crush in the world's biggest sugar exporter is seen at 517.9 million tonnes of cane, according to an average of estimates from six local and international analysts polled just ahead of the government's third forecast.
That's 1.6 percent higher than the 509.5 million tonne mean of eight analysts in August. The additional cane - watered down by heavy rains in June - will lack the needed sucrose to yield any additional sugar or ethanol, however. The average sugar output view was 33.84 million tonnes, up slightly from the 33.16 million seen in August. Ethanol output from the region was little changed at 20.8 billion litres, down from 20.9 billion in August.
Analysts said that market estimates of the cane crop are likely to be lower than the official forecast due from the Agriculture Ministry's crop supply agency Conab early on Wednesday. In August, Conab put the centre-south cane crop at 530.5 million tonnes, a figure seen then as wildly optimistic. Analysts attribute the disparity to inexperience at Conab, which has only been forecasting the cane crop for a few years. Conab, considered the benchmark for grain estimates, is also widely seen as overly optimistic due to the agency's proximity to government concerns over inflation.
As harvest nears the finish in the coming weeks, favourably dry weather has allowed mills to stay open weeks longer than last year, and market analysts have raised their forecasts for the final centre-south harvest. Wet weather in June is partly to credit. Plants still recovering from the drought over the past year gained tonnage after atypical rains in the heart of the dry season.
Brazil's centre-south output, which accounts for 90 percent of the country's cane, fell for the first time in 11 years during the previous 2011/12 harvest to 494 million tonnes, as drought and ageing cane fields dragged down yields. The centre-south rains in May and June will also help newly cut and planted cane for harvest next year.
Analysts say it is still too early to make accurate forecasts of the 2013/14 cane crop in Brazil, which starts crushing in April in the centre-south. But early guesses fall in the range of 540 million to 580 million tonnes, putting the crop in line with the record 2010/11 year at 556 million tonnes. "Weather continues to favour development of cane in the centre-south," said cane specialist Mauricio Muruci at local analysts Safras e Mercado.