The combined effect of this has resulted in a failure of the democratic principles and values. Every Government's claim to be the true representative of Pakistani people is shuttered by agitations and uproars, which it faces as soon as it comes in power. Perpetual failure in recognising the different needs of provinces and registering their consensus, suggests a wide gulf between center and its periphery.
Moreover, it is due to this intolerance of dissent and polarisation of attitudes toward the divisive issues which has resulted in separation of East and West Pakistan. While viewing the prevalent situation in Pakistan it can be argued that the nature of state has remained constant as current regime is also facing similar problems ie it has failed to obtain mutual consensus of numerous issues such as Kalabagh Dam.
Therefore, in the light of the above situation, the study aims to evaluate and explore Sindh's attitude toward Kalabagh Dam. The study will explore different opinion primarily of stakeholders and to a lesser extent the people of Karachi and Urban areas of Sindh, particularly areas like Hyderabad, toward the issue of Kalabagh Dam, its nature, consequences and impact. as it has become increasingly an emotional issue aside from being a technical, economic, political, and environmental one.
METHODOLOGY: This study attempts for a comprehensive analysis of the subject matter. Primarily, the researcher aimed to understand what kind of different attitudes are prevalent among stakeholders regarding the construction of Kalabagh Dam.
Secondly, what perceptions and attitude general public of Karachi and urban Sindh hold about the Kalabagh Dam. In order to understand difference of attitudes and perceptions pertaining to Kalabagh researcher has selected 'mixed methodology' ie quantitative and qualitative, for data collection and analysis.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS: As discussed earlier the research strategy and methods of data collection and analysis are determined by the purpose of the study. Research questions are posed to explicitly and precisely articulate research purpose and consequently determine the research strategy. In the context of this research, the main research questions were:
-- What do the stakeholders such as the establishment, experts, environmentalists, agriculturists, political parties think about these issues?
-- What is the understanding of general masses regarding the above mentioned issue?
SAMPLE: In this study, the researcher has used two types of sampling; Convenience and purposive. Purposive sampling was carried out because the study demands that those who are interviewed should be quite aware of the subject matter under investigation. Convenience sampling is applied to quantitative area where researcher distributed the structured questionnaire based on Likert Scale.
BELOW IS THE DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLE
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Experts 12
Journalist 5
Political Leaders 8
General Public 65
Karachi 37
Urban Sindh 28
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WATER CRISIS IN WORLD: Water is the most critical aspect of human living. Fresh water reservoirs are almost indispensable component of the ecosystem. Increasing scarcity of water, aggravated pollution and destruction of water resource all around the world has triggered a severe water crisis in many parts of the globe.
It is also alarming that world population is growing exponentially while there is no new fresh water source available as it was there some 2000 years ago. World wide water consumption has increased six fold with highest percent increase in agriculture sector.
WATER CRISIS IN PAKISTAN: Demand of water in South Asian has roused intensively in past three decades. It is largely due to massive industrialisation. Although availability of water resources in Pakistan have always been envied by the world at large.
At the time of independence 5000 cu/m of water was available for each Pakistani, which has now reduced to 1000 cu/m because of uncontrolled population growth and ill informed agricultural policies which are developed without taking into account how much water is available for the citizens of Pakistan.
As Memon noted that water issue in Pakistan is between Sindh and Punjab provinces. The issue came in the forefront in 1901 when Indian irrigation commission prohibited Punjab to draw water from Indus River without the prior approval of Sindh.
In 1919, the then government of India issued the Cotton Committee report; wherein, it prohibited Punjab from undertaking any projects until Sukkur barrage was completed and water needs of Sindh were determined. In 1925, Lord Reading, the British Viceroy of India, rejected Punjab's request for Thal canal from Indus considering the undue deprivation of Sindh's lower riparian rights.
The Roy Commission in 1945 came to an agreement known as "Sindh - Punjab Agreement". The agreement defined and resolved the distribution of the waters of all Indus basin rivers between Punjab and Sindh. Essentially, this agreement recognised Sindh's supremacy over the Indus River.
After Independence, the search for alternative arrangement to sustain our agriculture and economy (which largely depends on agriculture) the government of Pakistan decided to build dams on rivers.
Government of Pakistan therefore, with the aid of commonwealth countries constructed dams such as Warsak on River Kabul and Rohtas (later known as Mangla) on Jehlum, additionally a "Dam Investigation Circle (DIG)" was also created with the aim of carrying out surveys, collecting data and suggesting projects which may contribute to resolve the water scarcity issues of Pakistan.
In 1960s a treaty was signed by India and Pakistan (Nehru and Ayub Khan signed the treaty on behalf of their respective countries) with the mediation of World Bank.
This treaty is widely known as "Indian Basin Treaty". According to this treaty, control of waters of Ravi, Bias and Sutlej was given to India with the condition that India will compensate for the loss of Pakistan and fully participate in the construction of the replacement works with the help of the World Bank and the other aid giving agencies.
The replacement works included two large dams one on the Indus and the other on Jhelum, five barrages and eight link canals and a siphon for carrying the waters of Chenab River across the Sutlej River.
HISTORY OF KALABAGH DAM: The idea of constructing dam at Kalabagh site is disputed since it was presented to the provinces to meet the water requirements of Pakistan. In the last few days just after the earthquake it has again picked some momentum.
Some argue that this recent chanting of constructing Kalabagh by government is just to divert attention from earthquake mishaps. However, it has been said that Ministry of Water and Power Pakistan has conducted a study which informed that Pakistan will face a deficit of 12 million tons in total grain production in the year 2012-13, which is 31% of the projected target (NIPA, 2003) and this loss can only be overcome by constructing large dams.
In order to meet this challenge WAPDA prepared a 'Vision - 2025 for water resource and hydropower development" and Kalabagh is one of the component of this program. History of Kalabagh Dam dates back to 1953-54 when government with the help of some engineering consultant undertook engineering investigation of the area. The proposed site is 3 miles downstream of the confluence of the Indus and Soan rivers and about 8 miles upstream from Kalabagh town (Called as site 'A').
Preliminary investigations, with a number of borings, were undertaken which resulted in a preliminary feasibility study in 1956. In 1966 another site was proposed by experts that included deep sediment sluices to avoid rapid loss of storage capacity (Called as site 'B'). WAPDA in 1972 undertook another feasibility study at Kalabagh. They suggested moving it to further upstream location (site 'C').
The location was further changed by International Experts who thought to move site from location C to further upstream at location 'D'. A further comparative feasibility was carried out by both experts of WAPDA and international consultants and they mutually decided another site 'E' as favourable and less disadvantageous.
3.3.1 FEATURES OF KALABAGH DAM
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Dam Type: Earthfill
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Height: 260 ft. (above riverbed)
Length: 11,000 feet
Area at retention level 164 miles
Catchment Area: 110,500 miles
Gross Storage Capacity: 7.9 MAF 7.9 MAF
Live Storage Capacity: 6.1 MAF 6.1 MAF
Dead Storage: 1.8 MAF 1.8 MAF
Retention Level: 915 ft amsl 915 ft amsl
Main Spillway Capacity: 1.07 million cusecs
1.07 million cusecs
Design Flood Discharge: 1.92 million cusecs
1.92 million cusecs
Hydropower Generation 3,600 MW: 3,600 MW
Maximum Discharge: 1.2 million cusecs (in 1929)
1.2 million cusecs (in 1929)
Total Volume of Dam: 34 million yds 34 million yds3
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TABLE I
CONTROVERSIES AROUND KALABAGH DAM: Controversies are not the reflection of 'difference of opinion' rather it informs us about the inability of individuals or society to resolve the issues in a sane and rational manner. There are many factors which led to the formation of controversies.
However, present controversy about Kalabagh arose due to malfunctioning and ill coordination between different political processes. It would not be wrong to say that the controversy about Kalabagh dam is of two fold: technical; political
POLITICAL CONTROVERSIES: Government is claming that construction of Kalabagh will help Pakistan to develop and improve its economy. On the other hand, Sindh and NWFP are considering government's step as nepotism and preferential treatment to Punjab.
Moreover, ambiguous and changing statements of WAPDA have made provinces to rethink on this project. Throughout Kalabagh debate WAPDA either changed their stance from time to time or presented values which are challenged on methodological bases. Abbasi and Kazi's report "Kalabagh Dam - Look Before You Leap" [7] presents a very clear picture of these mishaps and inaccuracies in the factual Data of WAPDA.
TECHNICAL CONTENTIONS: Water scarcity is the major concern which circles around the Kalabagh Dam. Some technical experts believe that there is not enough surface water flow. Furthermore WAPDA has also presented two different average figures ie 123 MAF and 143 MAF based on 64 years (from 1992-1996 and includes both wet and dry cycles) and 22 years (from 1977-1994 and includes only wet cycles) respectively.
It is argued that Kalabagh will increase the irrigation capacity of Pakistan and improve the yield capacity of existing land in use. However, reports from National Commission on Agriculture and National Conservation Strategy suggests otherwise.
Also, the debates surrounding the construction of large dams largely revolve around the social and environmental impacts dams bring to communities. It is highly likely that Kalabagh will produce the same fate as its large dam predecessors has brought.
The most important of all is the environmental degradation of Indus echo system. The present level of silt discharge, estimated at 100 million tons per year, is a four-fold reduction from the original level before of the delta has reduced from an original estimate of 2600 sq. km.
Moreover, constructing Kalabagh will lead to combination of salt-water intrusion, and reduce silt and nutrient flows will change the geomorphology of the delta considerably. As Rafi Khan informs that the existing area of active growth the rivers were dammed and Kalabagh will only worsen the existing condition.
DATA ANALYSIS: Categories which emerged are discussed below:
UNAVAILABILITY OF ENOUGH WATER IN THE INDUS RIVER SYSTEM Many of the respondents showed a deep mistrust on WAPDA's figure regarding the availability of water. One of the respondents stated that
-- "figures given by WAPDA are exaggerated and fudged to make government happy"
-- Researcher encountered this believe of exaggerated data by WADPA on many occasions, in fact and thus it can be safely generalise that there is an air of mistrust for WAPDA and Government. One of the respondents also shared figures that shows the actual in opposed to figures presented by WAPDA. The figures showed are as under:
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Description WAPDA's Claim Actual figure
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Available Water in West. 143.1 MAF 125.3 MAF
Rivers (Indus, Jhelum & Chenab)
Eastern Rivers Contribution 4.0 MAF Nil
(Sutlej, Beas & Ravi)
System Losses 10.0 MAF 14.0 MAF
Out flow to sea 5.8 MAF 10.0 MAF
Accord Allocation to Provinces 117.35 MAF 117.35 MAF
Net Water Availability (+)14.0 MAF (-)16.0 MAF
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TABLE 2 According to some of the respondents WAPDA has ignored 'lean years' and has applied mean year calculation method instead of using 80% probability method. Consequently, figures available through WAPDA's methodology shows more water than that is available. Thus, the issue is not of exaggeration in data but how data is to interpret. According to one:
-- "what is substantiated and what is not is a matter of interpretation. Same numbers can be interpreted differently and this is what Punjab and Sindh are doing. Punjab wants to see the glass half filled and Sindh sees it half empty"
(To be concluded)