Analysts said demand should recover soon when people turn on their heaters and exports rise. On its second to last day as the front-month, October futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 2.9 cents, or 1.2%, to $2.474 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:59 a.m. EDT (1259 GMT), their lowest since September 6.
That puts the front-month on track to decline for a seventh straight session for the first time since December 2015.
Futures for November, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 5 cents to $2.48 per mmBtu.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures over the next two weeks would be colder than normal over the northwestern half to the country and warmer in the southeastern half. Traders said this should reduce heating demand without lifting the need for air conditioning.
Data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the lower 48 US states would average 83.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week and next as cooling demand is slowly replaced by heating demand.
Those demand forecasts include exports, which analyst said would likely rise as more gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and pipelines to Mexico.
Gas flows to the LNG plants held at 6.2 bcfd for a second day on Tuesday, up from a low of 5.7 bcfd last week following the shutdown of Dominion Energy Inc's Cove Point in Maryland for planned maintenance, according to Refinitiv data.
Refinitiv projected flows to LNG terminals could rise to a near record high of 6.6 bcfd by the end of next week.
Exports to Mexico rose to 5.3 bcfd on Tuesday from a seven-week low of 4.9 bcfd on Monday. That compares with a record high of 5.9 bcfd last week after gas started moving through the 2.6-bcfd Valley Crossing pipeline from Texas.
Traders said pipeline flows to Mexico should jump back to record levels soon now that Kinder Morgan Inc's Permian Express pipe in Texas entered service.
Analysts said utilities likely added 86 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 20, up from an injection of 51 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 74 bcf for the period.
If correct, the increase would boost stockpiles to 3.189 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 1.9% below the five-year average of 3.252 tcf for this time of year.
The amount of gas in inventory has remained below the five-year average since September 2017. It fell as much as 33% below that in March 2019.
But with production near a record high, analysts said, stockpiles should reach a near-normal 3.7 tcf by the end of summer injection season on Oct. 31.
Gas production in the lower 48 states fell to 92.0 bcfd on Tuesday due to small declines in several states, down from 92.6 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an all-time daily high of 93.0 bcfd on August 19.