Home »Cotton and Textiles » Cotton Analysis » Weekly cotton review: bearish trend witnessed
Bearish trend was seen in the prices of new cotton crop. People showed interest in business. The price of cotton fell by Rs 1600 per maund since the arrival of the new crop till now. The crop in Punjab affected by rains and the crop in Sindh was affected by the attack of Taddi Dal. The news of negotiations between China and America will have positive impact on world trade.

In the local market during the last week due to interest of textile and spinning mills in the buying of new cotton crop the trading volume increased but over all bearish trends was seen in the prices. There was a problem with the quality of cotton but the textile and spinning mills were showing interest in the buying of cotton because of the imposition of 10 % sales tax on buying. According to the information received from lower Sindh the supply of Phuttis above expectations despite increasing heat due to which the ginning factories has increased the buying of Phutti. At the moment 25 ginning factories has started ginning partially. Up till now 35 thousand bales of cotton of new crop is ready.

In Punjab the arrival of Phutti has started partially and three ginning factories has started ginning. On the arrival of new crop the rate of cotton is in between Rs 8800 to Rs 9000 per maund but after the decrease in the rate by Rs 1200 the rate was in between Rs 7700 to Rs 7800 per maund but after the extraordinary increase in the price of dollar as compare to Rupee the rate was increased by Rs 300 to Rs 400.

Similarly the fluctuation of Rs 1600 per maund was seen in the prices of cotton and in the same way fluctuation was seen in the prices of Phutti which was opened at Rs 4100 to Rs 4200 per 40 Kg and after that rate was decreased and reached in between Rs 3300 to Rs 3400 per maund and after that it again increased and was available at Rs 3500 to Rs 3700. The fluctuation was seen in the prices of Banola also. The increase in the rate of dollar by Rs 8 as compared to rupee on Friday the rate of dollar again witnessed a decrease of Rs 4 and the price of Dollar reached at all time high of Rs 164 and closed at Rs 160.

At the end of the week the rate of new cotton is in between Rs 8000 to Rs 8100 per maund. The rate of Phutti is in 3400 to Rs 3600 per 40 kg while the rate of Banola is in between Rs 1450 to Rs 1500 per maund. Ginners had the stock of more than 2 lac bales. The rate of the stocked cotton is in between Rs 7000 to 8600 per maund. The Spot Rate Committee of Karachi Cotton Association has decreased the spot rate by Rs 300 per maund and closed it at Rs 8400 per maund. The Karachi Cotton Association will issue the rate of new cotton on July 1, 2019.

Chairman Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum told that Tiddi Dal has attacked the crop of cotton in some areas of cotton production of Sindh. The Plant Protection Department has taken the preventive measure by starting spraying and controlled the damage to some extent. However, the department had not issued any report regarding damage done by the attack. Chief Minister Sindh Syed Murad Ali Shah had also taken the notice of attack of Tiddi Dal on the crop and detected the concerned departments to start spray in the affected areas.

According to the experts cotton crop is affecting due to rains in Punjab and the attack of Tiddi Dal on cotton crop in Sindhi. The position of cotton crop in Sindhi is satisfactory while the officials of concerned departments in Punjab are trying to increase the production of cotton. Although agriculture minister Punjab Malik Noman Ahmad Langrial told that up till now the sowing of cotton has completed in Punjab. According to estimates this year 80 lac bales will be produced in Punjab this year if the weather conditions remains favorable. However, if the production of cotton in Sindh remains favorable than 45 lac bales will be produced in Sindh and if Balochistan and Sindh produced 1 lac bales then the overall approximate production of cotton in the country will be in between 1 crore 25 to 26 lac bales but it will be difficult to achieve the initial target of production of 1 crore 50 lac bales.

He said that we can say that there is a bearish trend in international cotton market. If the tension decreases between China and America due to trade conflict then it is expected that Rate of Promises (Waday Ka Bhao) of New York Cotton will increase. According to the information that during the G 20 meeting positive negotiations were held between Chinese and American president and it was hoped that there will be positive impact of these talks in international market.

The bearish trend was seen in Indian cotton market while mixed trend was seen in Chinese cotton market. The slump was expected in trade activities in the country due to the imposition of 17 percent sales tax on textile products and 10 percent sales tax on cotton from July 1.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2019


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