Rapid population growth will lead to higher caloric demand and at the same time will be accompanied by rapid urbanization. In such situations, adaptation to climate change is needed and for agriculture it means focusing on farm management practices, proper fertilizer usage and adoption of heat/drought resistant varieties.
Climate Smart Agriculture is an approach used worldwide focusing on enhancing agriculture productivity and incomes while simultaneously building resilience to climate vulnerability and changes.
According to report, climate change has led to long term reduction in rainfall in semi-arid regions of the country and in November 2018, the Pakistan Meteorological Department issued a drought warning for Sindh and Balochistan due to below normal rainfall. This was the second warning of the year.
Irrigation water flows for Oct-Jan FY19 have been 20 percent lower than the 5-year average. Shortages and erratic nature of water has already been stressed upon in previous SBP reports.
Mean temperature of the country has increased by 0.5 degree Celsius in previous 30 years. By 2060, Pakistan's mean temperature is expected to rise by 1.4 degree Celsius to 3.7 degree Celsius, higher than the world average.
The manifestations of climate changes and variability are currently witnessed in the erratic nature of rains, higher temperature and reduced water availability.
The Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) International Model for Policy Analysis of Agriculture Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) calculates the percentage difference between climate change occurring scenario with and without climate change over the period 2020-2050 on trade, yields, cultivated area and livestock in Pakistan.
The crops at risk are wheat, maize, sugarcane and gram with the most negative impact, where yields of all crop are expected to decline. The 2050 wheat projected area is expected to decline by 2.5 percent lower under climate change as compared to no climate change. Furthermore, through crop models predictions it is concluded that yields will reduce due to high temperature in arid, semi-arid and humid zones. The temperature changes have already effected wheat-sowing season, resulting in crop sowing delays.
According to report to tackle climate change threats and enhance yields, climate smart agriculture requires adoption of a wide array of techniques for all crops, from water saving and pest management to adoption of heat/drought resistant varieties of seed.
Several practices such as alternative wet and drying (AWD) of paddies helps save up to three irrigations as compared to continuous flooding, no-till rice and wheat systems are in practice where wheat is sown without tilling the land after rice, it added. The FAO study for Pakistan highlights the main impediments to accepting the Climate Smart Agriculture practices which need to be addressed.
This includes adoption of several climates smart and yield increasing practices is low due to lack of knowledge and awareness. Extension services by the agriculture departments are still weak as many of the farmers are unaware of modern agro-chemical, crop seed varieties and adequate fertilizer use. Only 27 percent of total households surveyed in Punjab in 2014 had interacted previously with an extension agent.
In addition, lack of financing tools and credit disbursements for smart technology such as drip irrigation and high yielding seeds are low, resulting in disappointing uptake of several techniques and adequate quality seeds even when available.