The forthcoming visit of Prime Minister Imran Khan to China is being keenly awaited by the Chinese because the 50 billion dollar China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a small but critical component of over one trillion dollar One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, envisages Chinese investment and loans in infrastructure development in Pakistan as well as establishing Chinese industrial units in the special economic zones along the CPEC route to take advantage of the Gwadar port and its easy access to the Middle East and onward to the West - activities that would re-energize the Chinese economy. Pakistan too is anticipating the agreements expected to be signed during the Prime Minister's visit as the country is severely cash-strapped and any assistance, be it in the form of balance of payment support to meet the remaining 6 billion dollar shortfall for the remaining nine months of the current year (though grants are clearly preferred and are reportedly under consideration), and investment to preempt the possibility of a default would be welcomed. And last but not least, there is discussion on the need to make progress on a Free Trade Agreement with China that is mutually beneficial and seeks to end the disparity between our exports to China (less than 2 billion dollars) and imports from China (in excess of 15 billion dollars).

Pakistan has been and continues to be under attack by the Trump administration with the freezing of 2 billion dollar military assistance, being placed on the Financial Action Task Force's grey list of nations with inadequate control to prevent terrorist financing and in September cancelling 300 million dollars in counter-terrorism reimbursements as highlighted by former Pakistan Ambassador to India Abdul Basit. At the same time, the 'do more' mantra remains. However, attacks on China by senior members of the Trump administration, including President Trump himself, are best epitomized by the reprioritization of the US National Security Strategy in a report cited by Basit which "categorizes China and Russia as disruptive forces which challenge American power, influence and interests and attempt to erode American security and prosperity."

Soon after assuming office, Trump declared that "I said that I will be the greatest jobs producer that God ever created - and I mean that." Ignoring economists' warnings and concerns by US industrial concerns, Trump proceeded to slap tariffs on imports from nearly all countries, but particularly those with which the US trade deficit was high. Recent data suggests that his critics were right and a study by the US Chamber of Commerce notes that the "recent and proposed" trade actions by the Trump administration threaten as many as 2.6 million American jobs and will "stymie our economic resurgence." The Tax Foundation estimates that the immediate loss of jobs as a consequence of Trump tariffs was 48,585 - a figure likely to rise to 250,000 after the US imposed higher tariffs on another 200 billion dollar Chinese products in September.

Pakistan and China have been firmly categorized as countries with which the Trump administration is reluctant to do business unless changes that challenge our national, security and economic interests are implemented - changes that are simply untenable for the two countries. However, Basit correctly concludes that the Khan administration's "political skills will be put to the test as Islamabad recalibrates its ties with China and the US and seeks to balance its economic and strategic interest." One would hope that while economic interests take precedence over all others at present for Pakistan, and therefore China's assistance would be critical, yet Pakistan must remain engaged with the US even though given Trump's bias it is unlikely to bear fruit until his tenure ends.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2018