Although in Sunday's by-elections the ruling PTI increased its numerical strength in the National and Punjab assemblies, its main rival the PML-N has given it a good run for its money. Out of the 11 NA seats up for grabs the two parties won four each; though the PTI's coalition partner, the PML-Q, managed to retain both its Gujrat and Chakwal seats. Of the four seats vacated by Imran Khan, his party lost two in the PTI-ruled provinces, one to the Nawaz League in Lahore and the other to MMA in Bannu. The Nawaz League not only held on to its two seats but also wrested away two seats from the PTI in Lahore and Attock, where the latter's candidate lost with a wide margin. As regards provincial assemblies in Punjab, the PML-N emerged slightly ahead grabbing five seats against the PTI's four. Two seats went to independents who, going by tradition, are likely to join the ruling party. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PTI led in five constituencies followed by the ANP in four and the PML-N in one. In Sindh, the PTI and PPP took one seat each. The fight for the provincial assembly seats in Balochistan remained confined to two regional contestants, with a joint candidate of BNP-M and JUI-F leading in Khuzdar and former chief minister Aslam Raisani in Mastung. These are yet unofficial results and votes cast by overseas Pakistanis are yet to be counted. On seats where the margin of victory is narrow, these votes however could alter results.

Overall, the results constitute a setback for the PTI considering that by-elections, more often than not, are won by ruling party's candidates. The PTI swept to power riding on the back of a popular pro-PTI wave. And yet within less than 60 days time the wave seems to be subsiding. Former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi who lost in two constituencies in the July 25 general elections easily sailed to victory in Lahore. And former railways minister Khawaja Saad Rafique having suffered defeat at the hands of the PTI Chairman - though by a difference of just 600 votes - has now secured success in NA-131 against a new PTI entrant, Humayun Akhtar Khan. It is worth noting that Khawaja has succeeded despite facing serious corruption charges before the National Accountability Bureau. The results reveal some hard truths about the nature of politics in this country.

First, that corruption allegations are not enough to discredit politicians. Second, that although it is common for politicians to hop from one party to the other, but for a party leadership to embrace people only because they have loads of money to spend on electioneering, and hence deemed electable, does not guarantee victory, as seen in NA-131. In fact, there are several other examples from the last general elections wherein such 'electables' failed to come up to the PTI's expectations. Third and most important, populist slogans may help a leader come to power, but retaining public support is a whole new ballgame. All through his election campaign, Imran Khan had been promising to establish a welfare state. At an earlier point, he had said he'd rather commit suicide than go to the IMF with a begging bowl. Politicians do not have the luxury of uttering words that could come back to haunt them. His government is now in negotiations with the IMF, which is set to impose harsh conditionalities. A substantial increase in gas prices has already been announced whilst the rupee suffered a steep slide against the dollar, pushing the prices of various necessities of life up by several notches. These measures may be unavoidable. But from the perspective of PTI's supporters and voters, they constitute a betrayal of sorts. It should be clear to the government that populist rhetoric alone will not get it very far. The party leadership needs to be careful in making public pronouncements, and promise only what is doable, with an eye on the greater public good, of course.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2018