Aquaculture is not expanding as expected to new species and area due to lack of adequate technical know-how, social and trade issues along with climate change exacerbating the situation. Talking to this scribe, he said the aquatic resources which are being impacted due to climate change in Pakistan are placed in following order: small streams, rivers and lakes, coastal waters, large rivers and rivers with estuaries and high seas fisheries.
Climate change has not found place in fisheries and aquaculture sub-sector in Pakistan at the provincial government level. Fisheries and aquaculture are weak sub-sectors in context of priority of the provincial governments, which make them more vulnerable, especially in conflict with other sectors.
He said that fish is poikilotherms, even a difference of one degree or 0.1 unit of PH in seawater or change in oceanic current direction and speed will affect distribution and life processes of many marine organisms including fish. Changes in marine ecosystem and fisheries due to climate change will have distributional shifts and phonological changes which will have drastic change in species mix and ecological system structures and functions throughout the country.
This will require proper management including regular monitoring and replenishment programs otherwise it can cause erosion of economic returns to fishermen in inland and coastal areas as well as marine areas. Fishermen have to adapt by changing craft and gear combinations depending on availability of species.
The government of Pakistan prepared the National Climate Change Policy in the September 2012. Over the course of next five years the government witnessed climate change disasters striking Pakistan with unthinkable ferocity and unimaginable frequency.
The super floods of 2010 alone displaced twenty million people from their homes in just one stroke, making it by far the biggest human displacement caused by any climate induced single event in the history of human memory. The shocking floods of 2011 only underscored the enormity of challenge posed by the climate change and utter haplessness of peoples of Pakistan to adapt to the bitter reality.
The back-to-back floods of 2010 and 2011 prompted government of Pakistan to mobilize all resources to secure Pakistan from the impending Climate Change catastrophes. The year of 2012 will always be remembered as a landmark in the Climate Change response history of Pakistan, for the Government approved National Policy of Climate Change, in addition to the setting up of the World's first full-fledged National Ministry of Climate Change.
The National Climate Change Policy comprehensively addresses all possible challenges of Climate Change adaptation and mitigation in foreseeable future; and sure to provide rock solid foundational framework for ensuing Climate Change Action Plans, Programs and Projects.
The world's climate is changing more rapidly than scientists had envisioned just a few years ago, and the potential impact of climate change on world food production is quite alarming. Nowhere is the sense of alarm more keenly felt than among those who study the warming of the world's oceans. Evidence of the dire effects of climate change on fisheries and fish farming has now mounted to such an extent that the need for a policy for this has become urgent for the country.
A landmark news devoted exclusively to how climate change is affecting and is likely to affect commercially vital fisheries and aquaculture operations globally as well as in Pakistan. Climate change impacts on fisheries and aquaculture provides scientists and fishery managers with a summary of and reference point for information on the subject which has been gathered thus far.
The North Arabian Sea offers products and services essential for the development of Pakistan coastal economy. The productive fishery potential of coastal area would be impacted by climate variability. Marine ecosystems are likely to become less productive as a result of changes to the ocean chemistry, water quality, coastal mangroves and fisheries.
Marine ecosystems will become more vulnerable to other environmental impacts due to changes in climate variability. The Indus delta and its mangroves are already been affected due to changes in the annual flow pattern of river Indus. Vector Auto Regression model has been used to forecast impact due to changes in climate variability (Temperature, precipitation and freshwater availability on fisheries particularly on coastal fisheries).
The fish production forecast is dependent on variable temperature and rainfall which triggers the breeding behaviour of fish and production of offspring's in nature. Vector Auto Regression model forecast fisheries production for possible climate change scenarios.
The Vector Auto Regression model intimates that if temperature decreases by two degree and rainfall increases by 10 per cent it would have a positive impact on the fish production, an increase of 35.2 per cent of the existing fish production. However, if temperature alone increase by five cellules a decline of 34 per cent in fishery has been predicted by the model. Climate variability threatens to disrupt the ecosystem through effecting physical features and ecosystem functions.
The economic wealth of Pakistan coastal zone is derived from living and non-living resources and products of direct market value (eg fish and fishery products, coastal dependent activities, maritime trade, port and shipping activities, beach recreation and tourism, etc.) which earn millions of US dollars in foreign exchange.