Geography plays a role in relationships. Proximity is an advantage or a hazard depending on how you use it or abuse it. Despite sharing religious threads with Afghanistan we somehow have not been able to find enough commonalities to strike an advantageous relationship. Traditionally Pak Afghan relationship has been subject to the Cold War conflict between the US and the then Soviet Union. When the Red Army invaded Afghanistan, Pakistan supported Afghan Mujahideen to ward off the invasion. Pakistan financially, diplomatically, and militarily supported the Afghan mujahideen and hosted more than five million Afghans, while the Indians instead had close relations with the Afghan communist government and did not openly condemn Soviet aggression.
However, post-9/11 the Americans invaded Afghanistan and Pakistan chose to become an American ally in this war on Afghanistan. This was the beginning of a 'Cold War' between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban openly accuse Pakistan of being pawns in the hands of whoever pays them dollars. The Americans have traditionally used Pakistan's logistics and armed services either for entry and attack against their own enemies in Afghanistan ranging from Russia or Taliban. The devastation caused by this war for 16 years both in Afghanistan and Pakistan is a result of flawed foreign policies, weak governments and heavily indebted economies. Their willingness to go by the external forces led to a state of more conflict and terrorism. Thus for both governments the best way to ward off blame on their own strategic failures is by blaming each other. Consequently, a constant deterioration in relationship.
Your enemy's enemy is your best friend. India has seized this opportunity with aggression. They have developed this common agenda with Afghanistan of terming Pakistan an exporter of terror. Indians have made inroads in Afghanistan by developing trade and economic ties.
Despite its own many domestic needs, India is Afghanistan's sixth largest donor, providing the country with some $2 billion in effective aid since 2001. India's aid programs include infrastructure development, institutional capacity building, small development projects, as well as food security assistance in the form of ongoing deliveries of wheat to Afghanistan. Since 2001, more than 10,000 Afghan students have studied in India on ICCR scholarships, with some 7,000 returning home armed with education and technical skills. This has deeply influenced the Afghan tilt towards India and against Pakistan. This was evident when Afghanistan, along with India, refused to attend the September 2016 South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in Islamabad, which was later cancelled.
The main bone of contention is that the Afghan's accuse Pakistan for providing safe havens to Haqqani network while Pakistan blames them for providing shelter to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and many wanted terrorists like Mullah Fazlullah. In the last few years, many attempts have been made by the political and military leadership of the two countries to resolve the issue and just when relations become more civil, a series of bomb blasts take place across borders to start the blame game again. Meantime Pakistan, wary of American duplicity and Trump's entry into the political scene, has started making advances towards Russia. In September 2016, around 200 Pakistani and Russian military personnel conducted a joint exercise codenamed Druzhbha-2016, which means friendship. Earlier, in 2014 and 2015, naval forces from the two countries conducted joint drills named 'Arabian Monsoon'. A visit in April 2017 of a Russian military delegation, headed by Chief of General Staff Colonel General Israkov Sergi Yuryevich, to North Waziristan was another sign of Russia-Pakistan warming relationship.
The American coziness towards an eager Saudi Arabia, a desperate Afghanistan and a clever India has left Pakistan with almost with no regional anchor except China. China has always been very careful of taking frontline postures on the Pak-Afghan tension despite the fact that Afghans trust Chinese more than Americans and Russians. As CPEC investment matures in Pakistan India's usage of Afghan foreign policy to make Pakistan unstable will become more prominent. This Indian political encroachment will push towards a China, Russia and Pakistan political understanding that will make the US very uncomfortable.
Relationships driven by win-lose eventually end up as lose-lose. No matter how much Afghanistan benefits from Indian largesse it will remain unstable as it will have to support India in its objective for making Pakistan unstable. In turn, Pakistan will not cooperate with Afghanistan and America in facilitating the billions of rupees of trade and logistics support it provides as was evident when Pakistan sealed the border crossing between the two countries. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan must realize that being pawns in the hands of opportunist countries has cost them their development. It is only when both governments start making independent policy decisions and cooperate with each other to develop joint counter terrorism efforts that sustainable peace may be a possibility.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])