Last month, the government allowed imports of half a million tonnes of duty-free raw sugar, as a drought cut output below consumption for the first time in seven years. Traders were speculating that the government could soon be forced to allow imports of an extra 500,000 to 1 million tonnes to meet local demand, estimated at 24-25 million tonnes a year.
"We expect this year's production at 20.3 million tonnes and we had 7.7 million tonnes of carryover stocks at the start of the season, with consumption estimated at 24-24.5 million tonnes, we'll have a surplus of 3.5 million tonnes when the new season starts on October 1," Paswan told Reuters in an interview. After consuming 2 million tonnes of sugar in October, India will be left with about 1.5 million tonnes in November, when the new season supplies pick up, he said.
Local sugar prices are steady around 38,000 rupees ($590.38) a tonne despite an uptick in demand during the summer months when sales of ice cream and cold drinks soar, potentially boosting demand for sugar. Paswan also said his government has no immediate plans to raise the import tax on wheat. India, the world's second-biggest wheat producer, in March imposed a 10 percent import tax on the grain to curb imports when Indian farmers were starting to harvest their crops.
Copyright Reuters, 2017