Consumption was seen at 2.079 billion tonnes, unchanged from the IGC's previous forecast for 2017/18 and slightly up from the prior season's 2.075 billion. Grain stocks at the end of the 2017/18 season were seen falling by 25 million tonnes to 491 million, mainly driven by a 20-million-tonne decline in corn (maize) inventories. "Only a relatively small depletion of carryover stocks is envisaged (in 2017/18) ... Maize accounts for most of the drop, partly linked to ongoing efforts to reduce inventories in China," the report said.
The IGC raised its forecast for the 2017/18 world corn crop by 2 million tonnes to 1.026 billion tonnes, partly reflecting an improved outlook for production in Canada. Production was still, however, seen about 3 percent below the prior season's record 1.059 billion tonnes. The IGC also increased its forecast for the 2017/18 world wheat crop by 1 million tonnes to 736 million tonnes, although that remained about 2 percent below the prior season's 753 million tonnes.
Global soybean production was seen at 348 million tonnes in 2017/18, up from a previous forecast of 345 million but below forecast consumption of 350 million. "Despite a potentially larger crop and expanded supplies, world soybean stocks may tighten slightly in 2017/18," the IGC said, putting 2016/17 production at 345 million tonnes.
Copyright Reuters, 2017