Days ahead of the annual meeting of the Conference on Disarmament (CD) Pakistan has warned that it would not drop its opposition to the commencement of the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) unless it covers India's existing stockpiles of fissile material. Pakistan has persisted in that position in the past and would do it in future. But not because Pakistan is opposed to the idea of cutting-off production of fissile material; its opposition stems from its perspective that India's unsafeguarded and unaccounted for production of fissile material by civilian reactors would provide a ready reserve that could be weaponised as and when desired. Pakistan has persevered in this position ever since the US inked a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with India, and that is a kind of veto in the context of Conference of Disarmament which works on the basis of absolute consensus. "Pakistan should not be asked to agree to something that is not in its strategic interest. We are committed to protecting our strategic interest and we will not agree to any treaty that undermines our interest," says Director General Disarmament at the Foreign Office. His comment is in line with Pakistan's perspective that negotiating a treaty that only bans future production of fissile material without taking into account the existing stockpiles would freeze the existing asymmetries that tend to obtain in South Asia. Thanks to the waiver granted by the United States eight of India's reactors and its Fast Breeder programme and nearly five tons of weapon grade plutonium are not under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. However, should the Nuclear Suppliers Group members provide assurance that that as a result of the FMCT these unsafeguarded reactors and Fast Breeder programme would come under the IAEA safeguards Pakistan may then consider removing its veto to commencement of the treaty.
What pressure the Trump administration would exert on Pakistan to lift its veto at the forthcoming Conference of Disarmament moot we do not know - though such a pressure cannot be ruled out given Washington's consistent moves to raise India as the regional hegemon and strategic partner against China. The US may like to restructure the working of the Conference of Disarmament, as it tried with the working of the Nuclear Suppliers Group where India's entry is being resisted by some of the members. But then also there is not much of logic in the position the US has taken on the FMCT. While it wants cutting-off the production of weapon-grade fissile material by others on its own it is furiously working to further sharpen its nuclear option by improving effectiveness of its nuclear arsenal. Were it seriously concerned about production of fissile material it should have brought India's existing stockpiles under the purview of the civil nuclear cooperation agreement. It is also likely that instead of the Conference of Disarmament the US may look for an alternative forum for ratification of the FMCT. Should that happen it would be indeed a kiss of death to the UN-based disarmament system - and a victory of pro-nuclear proliferation forces and success of those who would like to monopolize nuclear technology as a weapon of choice.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2017
