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  • Jan 3rd, 2017
  • Comments Off on British funds wary of calling end to bond bull market
British funds remain wary of calling an end to the three-decade bond bull run, having upped their debt holdings in November despite a world-wide swing towards so-called reflationary trades following Donald Trump's US election win.

Reuters' monthly survey of 13 UK-based investors also showed a sharp fall in exposure to euro zone assets, posibly driven by the continent's risk-packed political calendar, starting with an Italian referendum and Austrian elections next month.

The poll was conducted between November 18-28 and takes into account portfolio shifts made after Trump's election victory which could result in $1 trillion-plus stimulus for the United States in the form of infrastructure spending and tax cuts.

Those expectations, which have brought gains for US stocks and select commodities, are seen resulting in greater inflation and faster US rate rises, in turn feeding through to the dollar and US Treasury markets.

UK funds however have cut equities slightly this month while raising bond allocations a touch to 30 percent of global balanced portfolios. US bonds' share in their debt portfolios was at a three-month high, the poll showed.

"The United States is likely to err on the side of caution in terms of increasing rates," said Justin Onuekwusi, a fund manager at Legal & General Investment Management.

"We still ultimately think rates are likely to remain lower for longer. We have the ECB, BoJ and the BoE all buying bonds, central bank balance sheets are at unprecedented highs as a percentage of GDP since the financial crisis," he added.

All the fund managers who replied to a special question on the US Federal Reserve expect two rate rises in 2017, which is in line with market pricing. And only half the participants who responded agreed that the bull market in global bonds was over.

"Certainly all the signs point to higher rates - Trump could have been the catalyst to spur higher inflation and higher real rates," said Sacha Chorley, a portfolio manager at Old Mutual Global Investors.

But Mouhammed Choukeir, chief investment officer of Kleinwort Hambros, disagreed.

"It is prudent to remember (government bonds) have delivered excellent returns over the last one, three and five-year periods through conditions similar to today - a surprise to many. It is more than possible that they will continue to surprise," he said.
UK funds also showed a skew away from the euro zone, cutting European stocks to 13.8 percent, the lowest in two years, while euro zone debt holdings fell to 21.8 percent, the lowest since July.

Italy holds a constitutional change referendum this Sunday that could unseat Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and deepen its banking crisis, while Austria's weekend election may vote in the first far-right head of state in Western Europe since World War Two.

Far-right candidates are also frontrunners in elections in the Netherlands and France next year.

"We increased the underweight (on Europe) recently as the rise of populism raises political risks ahead of a busy electoral period across the continent," said Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset at Royal London Asset Management.

He was also trimming exposure to emerging markets, which have wilted in recent weeks as the dollar and US yields have risen.

The poll found that the allocation to emerging bonds had fallen 0.7 percentage points over the month to 13.4 percent though equity holdings rose to 20.5 percent from 16.9 percent in October.

Asked a special question on emerging markets, only half the fund managers who responded said it was time to sell.

Greetham said he would not move underweight on emerging markets due to an expected pick up in world economic growth.

But some of those who cut back on emerging markets said they would put the cash into Japanese stocks, which tend to benefit as the dollar strengthens versus the yen. Allocations to Japanese equities were at 10.6 percent, more than 1.5 percentage points above last month and the highest since August.

Copyright Reuters, 2017


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