Tuesday, September 16th, 2025
Home »Money and Banking » World » Treasuries end turbulent 2015 higher

  • News Desk
  • Jan 2nd, 2016
  • Comments Off on Treasuries end turbulent 2015 higher
US Treasuries prices rose on Thursday to end the year higher than expected by many investors and with the yield curve flatter than in 2014. Through December 30, the Barclays US Treasury Index posted returns of 0.67 percent while the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Treasury Index had returns of 0.65 percent.

The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF was down 4.280 percent for the year while the iShares 1-3-year Treasury Bond ETF was down 0.047 percent. The SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF was down 12.173 percent for the year, and the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF fell 4.430 percent for the year. Treasuries prices jumped early in the year after slower-than-expected economic growth fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve would delay raising interest rates.

Speculation about when the central bank would finally hike rates drove fluctuation in yields throughout the year, with news of devaluation of the Chinese yuan leading investors to seek equities over US government debt. "One of the biggest events of the year was the big selloff in Treasuries in June which no one understood at the time, but then there was a realization that China's economy would not react to policy change right away," said Jim Vogel, interest rate strategist at FTN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee.

When the Fed increased its benchmark rate in December - the first rate hike since 2006 - investors expected short-term interest rates to increase faster than long-term rates in a bear-flattening move, but the yield curve flattened because of demand for longer-dated Treasuries and less because of selling of shorter-dated ones.

Bullish investors expect the curve to continue flattening in this form in 2016, with demand for longer-dated Treasuries increasing on skepticism about whether the Fed will be able to raise rates as many times as it would like to in 2016. The two-year note ended the year up 2/32 in price to yield 1.051 percent on Thursday, down from 1.079 percent on Wednesday. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury notes ended the year up 10/32 in price to yield 2.269 percent, up 27 basis points for the year. The US 30-year bond closed the year up 18/32 in price to yield 3.015 percent, up 8 basis points for the year.

Copyright Reuters, 2016


the author

Top
Close
Close