A senior Multan government official told AFP the dykes were likely to be blown in the evening, but the blast may be put off if the waters abate. Similar drastic measures were taken on Wednesday to protect the city of Jhang, further upstream, where 10,000 people were evacuated overnight, according to senior rescue official Rizwan Naseer. Hafiz Shaukat Ali, a senior administration official in Multan, said all schools in the area would be closed for the next two days.
The military, which often plays an important role in disaster relief efforts, said troops had rescued 22,000 people stranded by floodwaters around Punjab and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The country's National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) said 257 people had been killed and more than 1.1 million affected - a figure that includes both those stranded at home and those who fled after the floods hit.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited flooded parts of Azad Jammu and Kashmir on Thursday, announcing $10,000 compensation for families who lost loved ones in the floods and pledging to reopen blocked roads as soon as possible. Pakistan has suffered deadly floods around the same time every year since 2010, when the country was hit by the worst inundations in its history.
The waters that year swamped 160,000 square kilometres (62,000 square miles) of land - an area bigger than England - and cost the country nearly $10 billion, the equivalent of 6.5 percent of GDP. Around 1,800 people were killed and 20 million affected. But an analysis this week by Topline Securities, a Karachi-based investment company, said this year's floods do not appear to be on the same scale.
"Seeing the preliminary numbers... reported by NDMA, magnitude of the flood looks like 2012 and 2013, but much lower than 2010," the report said. The floods of 2012 killed nearly 600 people and affected 4.6 million, while those in 2013 killed around 300 and affected some 1.5 million.
BR reporters from Lahore, Islamabad and Karachi add: Flood Forecasting Division said on Thursday that more than 610,000 cusecs of water passed through the Trimmu barrage and the breaches in the dykes of Athaara Hazari on Thursday, inundating more than 300 villages in Athara Hazari and Ahmad Pur Sial tehsils by over 20 feet of water. Garh Maharaja and other tehsils were also affected where standing crops on more than 100,000 acres of farmlands were destroyed.
After passing Jhang, the water surge will heed towards southern Punjab where it is likely to spell more destruction. Thousands of troops, police and other emergency personnel have been deployed to deliver drinking water, blankets and other relief supplies. According to reports, road links from Jhang city to Chiniot, Sargodha, Shorkot, Multan, Bhakkar, Layyah, Dera Ghazi Khan, Dera Ismail Khan, Khushab and Mianwali have been destroyed. Pakistan Meteorological Department on Thursday forecast that latest hydrological condition of River Indus at Guddu and Sukkur is likely to attain high to very high flood level ranging between 6,00,000 to 7,00,000 Cusecs on Monday to Wednesday (September 15-17).
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) states that the on-going floods in river Chenab after devastating a vast tract of land and inflicting damages on the public and private property besides human life in the Marala-Trimmu reach are passing through Trimmu Headwork. A peak discharge of 626,000 cusecs passed through the headwork on September 10. "The flow is now moving to Guddu Barrage en-route Punjnad Headwork, where according to FFD, Lahore, a High to Very High flood discharge in the range of 600,000 cusecs to 700,000 cusecs is expected sometimes between September 15 and September 16," it states.
The Met office requested the concerned authorities to take all necessary measures to avoid any further loss of life and property as Districts Muzaffargarh, Rahimyar Khan, Rajanpur, Jacobabad, Ghotki, Shikarpur , Sukkur are likely to be inundated. Presently, River Chenab is in very high flood at Trimmu. River Ravi is in low flood at Balloki-Sidhnai reach. Other main Rivers ie Indus, Jhelum & Sutlej are flowing normal. Thursday's actual river flows and reservoir elevations indicate that Mangla Dam has attained its maximum conservation level of 1242.00 feet. Tarbela Dam, which had earlier attained its maximum conservation level of 1550.00 feet on 20th August 2014, Thursday is at elevation of 1542.62 feet, which is 7.38 feet below its maximum conservation level of 1550.00 feet. Thursday's combined live storage capacity of Tarbela, Chashma & Mangla reservoirs is 13.695 MAF as compared to last year's 13.772 MAF.
An exceptionally high level flood in River Chenab at Trimmu has been seen on Thursday as water inflow has been recorded at 645,000 and outflow 592,000 cusecs. According to details, the position of the river inflows and outflows at Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma along with the reservoirs levels and the barrages Thursday is: Indus at Tarbela: Inflows 104,000 cusecs and outflows 60,000 cusecs; Kabul at Nowshera: outflow is 17,000 cusecs; Jhelum at Mangla: Inflows 77,000 cusecs and outflows 63,000 cusecs; Chenab at Panjnad: Inflows 132,000 cusecs and outflows 116,000 cusecs.
"A seasonal low lies over north Balochistan and adjoining areas. A low pressure area over west Madhya Pradesh (India) & adjoining east Rajasthan persists," the Met office said in its weather summary. It said that weak monsoon currents are penetrating upper parts of the country. A shallow westerly wave is prevailing over northern parts of the country, it added.
In the next 24 hours, it said mainly hot and humid weather is expected in most parts of the country. However, rain-thundershowers are expected at isolated places in Malakand, Hazara, Peshawar, Kohat, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore and Mirpurkhas divisions, Islamabad, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. The Sindh government has already stepped up efforts to evacuate around 0.8 million people dwelling on the steep side of River Indus in Sukkur and Guddu areas.
The provincial government's relief and rehabilitation department however expect the flood situation may not be that dangerous this time around as being anticipated. The department has already ruled out the chances of a 'super flood' for his the province. It forecast the flood may flow through River Indus between 600,000 cusecs and 700,000 cusecs during September 14 and September 15 and not beyond. The department claimed to have set up makeshift camps for flood-affected residents.
It has however identified around 47 vulnerable points at different waterways along the River. The department officials said the flood may affect the people living along the riverbank. They estimated that around 2.6 million people inhabiting along River Indus of which those will be affected residing between Guddu and Sukkur. The NDMA has already issued evacuation warnings for the districts which may be affected by the flood. It also ensured provision of anti-snake venom vaccination as a relief effort people affected by floods. Pakistan Army and Navy personnel will be ready to respond to flood threats.