That Nawaz Sharif has capitalised on widespread political, economic and social frustrations is a fact that has found its best expression in the disappointment of Zardari who has been successfully ranting his vitriol onto a captive party audience since Benazir Bhutto's murder in 2007. It is however, not sure whether or not he has resigned to his party's likely fate in the May 11 vote. In other words, the question that Zardari has accepted a given outcome with an implicit understanding that another outcome is not possible will find a perfectly plausible answer only on May 11. Though party's defeat in 2013 election looks inevitable, he has not given up the fight. Piqued by a despondent lack of activity in the PPP camp characterised by a pessimistic sense, he seems to be in a mood to rain on his rival's parade.
Though indulgence in any political activity has been prohibited by law, the President of Pakistan is still said to be nursing the party business through this election with a combination of success and failure. Not only does May 11 general election pose a challenge to the popularity of country's largest party PPP, the question of legitimacy of his own state of being liked, admired and supported by the rank and file in the post-Benazir Bhutto party politics has also come under a renewed focus. The post-May 11 situation could be fraught with confusion, tension and agonising questions for the leadership. It could have a potential to evoke a considerable controversy over the structure and direction of post-Benazir change within PPP and its agenda particularly with respect to society, polity and leadership.
The stepped up anti-Nawaz campaign that his party has unleashed on electronic and print media in the wee hours of election morning is a strong case in point. His strategy is clearly aimed at intensifying the Nawaz Sharif-Imran Khan duel in the context of Punjab-a province with 148 out of 272 National Assembly seats (direct elections) - with a view to improving the prospects of both PPP and PML-Q.
It is interesting to note that unlike 2008 elections, Chaudhry Shujaat-led party is now playing the role of a veritable arm of PPP in Punjab, particularly in its central and northern parts. It is perhaps for the first time in the political history of the country that any two parties have translated their electoral alliance or broad electoral understanding into seat adjustments on over 160 National and Provincial Assembly seats. They have strongly linked their own chances to the spoils of PML(N)-PTI contests on a number of NA and PP constituencies in Punjab.
It is not known whether or not the PPP-PML(Q) strategy will be reaping the desired results for them. Whatever, however, is known is the fact that they are going to emerge as scavenging birds insofar as they are able to find political carcasses exclusively by their own sight. They are not in a position to attack PML-N and PTI, but may kill the wounded and sick. They look forward to brightening their own prospects once the title fight narrows down between the two healthy parties.
Plagued by the incumbency factor and lack of performance, PPP candidates are finding it extremely difficult to answer questions such as whether the outgoing coalition kept the promises it made before the 2008 polls and whether peace, law and order prevailed during the five-year tenure of the outgoing coalition. Answers to questions in relation to power outages, lack of development infrastructure, creation of new job opportunities and its association with politico-economic scandals and scams also betray their weaknesses or vulnerable points.
PPP is greatly banking on its strategy that it has employed towards southern Punjab where it grabbed as many as 24 seats in the 2008 election. It is still quite confident that it would again emerge as the largest seat-getter in this least developed part of Punjab where the purported kidnapping of former prime minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani's son Ali Haider has added to the profile of the most bloodiest elections in the history of the country.
That election forecasting is one of the most formidable challenges for political scientists and seasoned analysts is a fact that has found a new significance in the case of Pakistan where PTI has turned out to be the most profound variable to be considered. Not only can it adversely affect Nawaz's seemingly tough balancing act to score a victory, it can help PPP and the coalition partners in the outgoing government make sufficient gains to nurse legitimate ambitions of forming the post-May 11 government.
Going by past experience there is high probability that a party with less number of seats can pose a serious challenge to the one with more seats. PPP seems to have drawn a value-able lesson from its blunder that it committed following 1988 elections. It had fatally distanced itself from smaller parties that eventually coalesced with Nawaz Sharif to help him form government in Punjab to the chagrin of the then Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto throughout her extremely brief tenure. There is no denying that this party has mastered the art of forging alliances to form coalition governments under the stewardship of Zardari. Characterised by a vastly split mandate, a hung parliament is a clear probability that appears considerably larger on the horizon than it does overhead. Nawaz should be ready for this challenge.
This was the 10th part of multi-part series "Election Outlook". The writer is newspaper's News Editor. He previously worked for various publications, including Daily Times, Dawn and Khaleej Times, on different positions. ([email protected])