Adil Najam: Environment is everything; from a business perspective, all of your input comes from the environment and all of it goes out into the environment again. The human ability to have conquered the planet has largely been a result of the human ability to co-exist in harmony with the environment.
The point is that the cycle of the environment is the most fundamental cycles of the human economy. So most of my work has been making this argument that environment is not the luxury of the rich, which is an argument most countries put up. My contention is that all countries have to be cognisant of their environment; because our access to water, energy, food and other essentials are directly related to it.
BRR: In your opinion, will the world evolve beyond the use of hydrocarbons to an extent that they will not be used for power generation anymore?
AN: Energy is far more important for us here than anywhere in the world, this is one of the biggest costs in our life. But we are in a honeymoon period, which is a matter of 150 years. This hydrocarbon economy we are living in is not going to last. It is not that hydrocarbon is going to become obsolete but we will find a better mix.
No form of energy has ever gone out of fashion, every form of energy that we have ever used except for a few exceptions, human beings still use. We keep adding new forms of energy and our dependence on one form of energy reduces.
The stone age did not end because we ran out of stones, it ended because we found something better. Since either technology allows you to find something better, or what you have been using becomes scarce, pushing you to look for something else.
I have no doubt in my mind that we will use multiple forms of energy for multiple purposes. I don't think hydrocarbon will go away but something better will come along. And a look around the world shows that in many ways, this transition is already taking place. In India, wind energy is being tapped at unprecedented levels, while China and Korea are making similar strides with solar energy.
BRR: Where do you think Pakistan is going in this regard? What mix of energy do you think will emerge here in the future?
AN: I think we have lot of potential we are not using the available resources well mainly because of exogenous factors like socio-economic uncertainty. Technological advancements require stability, which is clearly lacking in our case. On the bright side, our country is not locked in to any one particular technology; we are still growing and developing.
In the developed economies, switching to solar and wind energy is relatively expensive because before these can be adopted, they must first unravel the extensive infrastructure of previously used technologies. The rampant spread of cellular phones throughout Pakistan provides a comparable example.
I may be considered an optimist, but in my opinion oil prices will also decline in the medium-term as the energy mix here and around the world changes. Research is now exploring agricultural products as a source of energy. The main challenge on this front will be finding a balance between the use of agri-products for food and energy. Generating energy from tidal waves is another emerging possibility and I believe that in Pakistan there exists immense potential to tap this particular resource.
BRR: In the short-term, what can be done to improve energy efficiency in the country?
AN: The tragedy of our economy is truly unique and amazing. We are, at the same time, energy poor and energy wasteful. Simply by conserving energy and using it in more efficient ways, we can utilise the existing base in a much better and productive manner. Even the architecture of our homes, the placement of windows and doors can make huge differences to our energy consumption.
Historically the relationship between the use of energy and economic growth has been directly proportional; the more you use up, the more you grow. But China has actually bent that curve, in the sense that their economic growth is outpacing the growth in the use of energy. They have used less energy per unit produced than the rest of the world. This means that growth for them, costs less than the rest of the world.
The name of the game is eco-efficiency. There are many small, sensible steps that can be taken instead of waiting for silver bullets like the proposed Kalabagh Dam, IP and TAPI pipelines.
BRR: Water distribution in the country is based on archaic systems and there is a lot of wastage too. How important is the conservation and better allocation of this resource in the context of Pakistan?
AN: Blue is the new green, both in a monetary and environmental sense. We are obsessed with energy but the biggest changes we are going to face within the next decade will be water related. Most of the immediate effect of climate change will be limited to changes in water cycles and tables.
We think we have a lot of water, but we actually have very little useable water on the planet and it is going to be among the most precious commodities in the future, in more ways than we can even fathom at present. Water is going to be a very precious commodity in ways we have not even imagined.
In Pakistan, we live in an arid environment. Our civilisation has evolved around two systems; the monsoon winds and the River Indus system. When even one of these systems goes awry, the whole house of cards falls down and technically, climate change will bring profound changes to the environment in Pakistan.
BRR: How can the use of water be made more efficient in the country?
AN: The main issue is pricing. The water economy is huge in Pakistan but it is also very complex and needs to be untangled. Access to water is a right, but water is not anyone's private property. So while it is important to price water, this exercise has to be cognisant of the fact that it is also a necessity so it cannot be priced so high that it becomes inaccessible to a significant proportion of the population.
Water has to be a policy issue rather than a market issue and market signals that distort its use need to be changed. It has to be a public issue and we cannot let the government off the hook. While the government needs to back off from the energy sector; it actually needs to be more involved on this front.