An official of Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) said under Article 63 of the Constitution, a reference for his unseating would have to be sent to the National Assembly Speaker, who would transmit it within 30 days to the Commission to act on it within ninety days.
According to an official of National Assembly Secretariat, at least five months will be required to oust Gilani if his conviction is not stayed by a larger bench of the Supreme Court. Another legal expert said that Gilani may be sentenced for a period of six months. However, under Article 45 of the Constitution, the President can waive a sentence of any conviction.
According to him, the Interior Minister may declare the Prime Minister's House a sub-jail, even in a situation where the sentence is for six months, adding that Gilani will go directly to the PM House and will run the business from there.
Referring to 2003 amendments in contempt of court proceedings, Advocate Hashmat Ali Habib opined that Prime Minister must be tried under Article 204, wherein the contempt of court is a bailable offence, which authorises the court to announce imprisonment upto six months as well as a fine of up to Rs 0.1 million. However, he said, the accused could suspend the imprisonment by going into appeal before a larger bench of the apex court.
According to him, if the apex court exercises Article 204, the Prime Minister may be punished but not disqualified from the seat of parliament. Some believe that the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) will seek to invoke Article 94 to keep the Premier in office. The said Article reads: "The president may ask the prime minister to hold office until his successor enters upon the office of prime minister."
A seven-member bench headed by Justice Nasir-ul-Mulk on Tuesday reserved its judgment in the contempt case initiated against Prime Minister for his failure to act on the Supreme Court's directives to reopen graft cases against President Asif Ali Zardari. Gilani has appeared in the court twice before and decided to fight the case.
Even after he was formally charged with contempt of court on February 13, Gilani insisted that he would prefer imprisonment to writing a letter to Swiss authorities to reopen the cases against the President. The apex court had since December 2009 repeatedly asked the government to revive cases of alleged money laundering against President Asif Ali Zardari in Switzerland.
But the government has consistently argued that President Asif Ali Zardari enjoys constitutional immunity within Pakistan and abroad. Therefore, no letter can be written against him, according to government. The counsel for the premier, Atizaz Ahsan, has been seeking constitution of another bench to hear the matter. According to him, the bench that has framed charges against Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani is not constitutionally competent to conduct the hearing of case.
Attorney General for Pakistan Irfan Qadir has argued that the premier would not write a letter to the Swiss authorities to reopen graft cases against Zardari. The prosecutor also tried to establish Prime Minister's constitutional immunity. According to him, Article 248 of the Constitution Gilani enjoys immunity from the court proceedings. He requested the bench to show judicial restraint by withdrawing the contempt case against the PM.