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The rupee crossed the low level versus dollar at 87 during the week ended on November 19, 2011, due to forward buying of the US currency. In the interbank dealings, the rupee lost 44 paisa against dollar for buying at 87.04 and 43 paisa for selling at 87.08.

On the open market, the rupee lost 55 paisa in relation to greenback for buying at 86.95 and 35 paisa for selling at 87.05. The rupee, however, gained 74 paisa in terms of euro for buying and selling at Rs 117.32 and Rs 117.82. According to official data, remittances rose by 23.24 percent to 4.3 billion dollars in the first four months (Jul-Oct) of 2011-12 fiscal year, compared with 3.50 billion dollars in the same period of last year. Remittances rose to 1.02 billion dollars in October, compared with 855.11 million dollars received in October of last year.

The rupee has depreciated cumulatively by 28 percent against dollar since March, 2008 up to 10 November. In the meantime, the exports are not showing so much betterment as cheaper currency causes a rise in the country's exports. Bleak picture of the world economy and local weak economic fundamentals are dragging all investors into the unforeseen uncertainties, analysts said.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country's foreign exchange reserves were flat at 17.03 billion dollars for the week ending November 11, unchanged from previous week. Besides, direct and portfolio foreign investment also fell by 58.4 percent in the first four months of 2011-12 fiscal year to 238.1 million dollars, the SBP said.

INTER-BANK RATES: On Monday, the rupee slipped 5 paisa versus dollar for buying and selling at 86.65 and 86.70. On Tuesday, the rupee lost 9 paisa versus greenback for buying at 86.74 and 8 paisa for selling at 86.78. On Wednesday, the rupee shed 15 paisa in relation to dollar for buying at 86.89 and 14 paisa for selling at 86.93. Due to persistent fall in the value of rupee, the national currency might hit the low level at 87 versus dollar in the near future, dealers said.

On Thursday, the rupee lost 21 paisa in relation to dollar for buying at 87.10 and 22 paisa for selling at 87.15.

On Friday, the rupee gained six paisa versus dollar for buying at 87.04 and seven paisa for selling at 87.08.

OVERSEAS OUTLOOK FOR DOLLAR: In the first Asian trade, euro and commodity currencies held firm as investors cheered progress on tackling Europe's debt problems, but traders remained wary as Italy prepared to test the market's appetite with a bond sale.

Most traders remained unconvinced that the new governments in Italy and Greece can win back investors' confidence in their debt, and were looking to Italy's auction for near-term cues.

The common currency was at $1.3754, having risen as high as $1.3811 in early trade, and slightly above $1.3751 hit in New York late on Friday. It also firmed against yen, reaching 106.71 yen, at one point, from New York's 106.02.

The dollar versus Indian rupee was available at Rs 50.08, in terms of Malaysian ringgit at 3.1330, at 6.347 in relation to Chinese yuan.

Interbank buy/sell rates for taka against dollar were 76.48-76.48 (previous 76.41-76.45), and Call Money Rates 21.00/21.00 percent (previous 10.00-21.00 percent).

In the second Asian trade, euro dipped, stuck near bottom of its recent trading range after a rise in Italian and Spanish bond yields underscored the challenges facing Europeam leaders as they struggled to contain the region's debt crisis.

The dollar briefly spiked higher against yen but later gave back most of its gains. Traders said the move was likely caused by a large-lot flow and stop-loss buying, and was probably not intervention.

The dollar was trading at Rs 50.6250 against Indian rupee, at 3.1535 in relation to Malaysian ringgit, and at 6.3519 against Chinese yuan. In the third Asian trade, euro slipped to a fresh one-month low against dollar and yen on Wednesday as euro zone debt crisis threatened to engulf top-rated members such as France, as government bonds of core countries came under pressure.

The common currency fell as far as $1.3437, its lowest level in more than a month, after French bond yield spread over benchmark German bunds hit euro-era highs near 200 basis points and spread of Triple-A rated Austria also shot up.

Italian yields spiked back above the critical 7 percent level as appointment of former EU Commissioner Mario Monti to head a new government failed to quell concerns over the country's long-term political and economic future.

Short-covering lifted dollar/ringgit to above a strong resistance at 3.1600, which was capped last month. The pair was seen heading to 3.1724, the 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement of its October slide. "The 3.16 looked to have turned to a support as long as the euro stays under 1.35," said a senior dealer for a Malaysian bank in Kuala Lumpur.

The yuan ended little changed against dollar, after People's Bank of China set a weaker mid-point and the dollar index hit a one-month high as the euro zone debt crisis threatened to engulf top-rated members. The dollar was trading versus Indian rupee Rs 50.89.

In the fourth Asian trade, euro trimmed its losses after hitting five-week lows versus both dollar and yen as bond market turmoil spread across Europe, but market players were still bracing for further weakness in coming weeks.

Investors were also nervously watching to see how German financial markets would react after rating agency Moody's Investors Service cut ratings of 12 German public sector banks, believing they were likely to receive less federal government support, if needed.

The euro dipped to $1.3421 on trading platform EBS at one point, its lowest since October 10. It later trimmed its losses to change hands at $1.3505, up 0.3 percent from late US trade.

Inter bank buy/sell rates for taka against dollar were 76.55-76.56 (previous 76.50-76.53), and Call Money Rates: 7.00/12.00 percent (previous 07.00-15.00 percent.

The dollar was trading versus Indian rupee at Rs 50.74, versus Malaysian ringgit at 3.1570 and at 6.3503 in relation to Chinese yuan.

In the final session, euro edged higher as traders covered short positions after its recent drop to a five-week low, but it was expected to remain in a downtrend amid fears that euro zone debt crisis was spiralling out of control.

Selling pressure on euro had intensified during the week on signs that contagion was spreading to core euro zone countries such as France, and the currency was on track for its biggest one-week drop since early September.

The spotlight fell on Spain on Thursday, which had to pay the highest rate to sell its 10-year debt since 1997, just shy of the 7 percent mark seen as unsustainable.

The euro, however, showed some resilience in the wake of the Spanish bond auction, getting a boost from short-covering and holding above a five-week trough of $1.3421 hit on Thursday on trading platform EBS.

The dollar was at Rs 51.38 versus Indian rupee, vs Malaysian ringgit at 3.1665, and in terms of Chinese yuan at 6.363.

At the week-end, euro rose against dollar on possibility that European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund might bail out bigger euro zone economies and borrowing costs for Italy and Spain eased. Sentiment remained bearish.

The common currency fell for three straight weeks as fears persisted that the debt crisis could engulf major euro zone states such as France and trigger a break-up of the 17-nation bloc.

The euro held up relatively well on the foreign exchanges despite a two-year-old sovereign debt crisis that had seen euro-denominated bond yields rising to record levels and talk the currency bloc may not even survive.

The euro had weakened in recent weeks as euro zone debt yields soared with a solution to the crisis elusive, though investors have held off from selling the currency aggressively compared with other assets.

OPEN MARKET RATES: On November 14, the rupee was firm in relation to dollar for buying and selling at 86.40 and 86.70. However, it shed 37 paisa in terms of euro for buying and selling at Rs 118.43 and Rs 118.93.

On November 15, the rupee did not move versus dollar for buying and selling at 86.40 and 86.70, and gained Rs 1.36 in terms of euro for buying at Rs 117.11 and Rs 1.32 for selling at Rs 117.61.

On November 16, the rupee held the levels versus dollar for buying and selling at 86.40 and 86.70, and gaining 82 paisa against euro for buying and selling at Rs 116.29 and Rs 116.79.

On November 17, the rupee shed 50 paisa versus dollar, for buying at 86.90 and 40 paisa for selling at 87.10. The rupee also lost 30 paisa against euro for buying and selling at Rs 116.59 and Rs 117.09.

On November 18, the rupee continued lost 10 paisa against dollar for buying and selling at 87.10 and 87.20. The rupee also lost 31 paisa in terms of euro for buying and selling at Rs 116.90 and Rs 117.40.

On November 19, the rupee recovered 5 paisa in relation to dollar for buying at 86.95 and 15 paisa for selling at 87.05. The rupee, however, lost 42 paisa in terms of he euro for buying and selling at Rs 117.32 and Rs 117.82.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2011


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