In view of a volatile internal situation of the country and Pakistan's central role in regional and international security in the context of extremism has enhanced the role of army chief. In domestic, regional and international security environment, army chief is a central figure. Selection of the next army chief will be viewed through this security prism both inside Pakistan and by international players.
In some countries such as India, usually senior most general is selected for the army chief post. It is a well-known tradition; therefore one can accurately predict who will be next army chief after a close review of list of senior generals. In Pakistan, a complex interaction of various factors determines the selection of army chief therefore it is hard to predict who will come out winner. In two cases; the selection of General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq (1976-88) and General Abdul Waheed Kakar (1993-96) as army chiefs came as a surprise to many as both officers were junior. Zia was number seven on the seniority list of generals while Kakar number five.
In the current set-up, the President of Pakistan as supreme commander of the armed forces has the authority to appoint army chief. President Asif Ali Zardari will try to delay constitutional amendments to give some powers back to the Prime Minister until he selects the next army chief.
On the other hand, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani as well as opposition leader Nawaz Sharif would like to speed up this process so that they are in a position to have a role in the appointment of next army chief. Civilian leaders only have the authority to appoint army chief but no say in the promotion and transfers of senior officers. In the next one year, ten new Lieutenant Generals will be promoted and posted to various important positions.
This is the sole prerogative of General Kayani and he will bring a new team and shuffle some old positions prior to his retirement. However, the next army chief will be selected from among the senior most Lieutenant Generals.
There is another possibility that civilian leader (President or Prime Minister) may offer General Kayani one year extension. In my view, it will be detrimental for both the army and the country and Kayani should resist the temptation. Kayani's own temperament and his dignified and professional conduct in the run-up to his own selection as army chief suggests that he may refuse if extension is offered to him.
This simple act will go a long way in rehabilitating the image of the army. The best course for Kayani will be to complete his tenure and retire on time. A preferable course for Kayani is to avoid media exposure in his retirement life and opt for running a reputable charitable organisation such as Al-Shifa Trust Eye Hospital.
In Pakistan, army chief is usually selected from the fighting arms (infantry, armor and artillery). Nawaz Sharif tried to appoint Lieutenant General Ziauddin Butt of Engineer Corps in October 1999 which resulted in the coup of General Pervez Musharraf. Any competent senior general even from supporting arms can lead the army.
Israel chose air force Lieutenant General Dan Halutz as chief of staff of Israeli Defence Forces (June 01, 2005-January 17, 2007). First Chief of Imperial General Staff Field Marshal William Nicholson (1909-1912) was from Engineer Corps. In Pakistan, Major General Sajjad Ghani of Engineer Corps has performed very well commanding 19th Infantry Division against militants in Swat.
Another bright and well respected professional engineers officer is Major General Taufiq Rafiq who is currently heading Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) and will likely end up as Engineer-in- Chief in due time. However, in case of Pakistan it is still a taboo to choose an army chief from supporting arms. This fact removes three senior Lieutenant Generals of supporting arms from the race; Lieutenant General Ashraf Saleem of Air Defence and Shahid Niaz and Muhammad Asghar of Engineers.
In view of the history of selection of army chiefs in Pakistan, it is not likely that a very junior officer will be selected. In addition, two important criteria are command of a Corps and senior staff officer appointment. We can narrow down the selection process to top eight contenders and review their career path to guess who is a strong candidate.
Let's first review those who are not likely to be considered seriously among the eight senior most Lieutenant Generals. Lieutenant General Syed Absar Hussain is currently commander of Army Strategic Forces Command (ASFC). This is a relatively new command, which controls country's nuclear and missile forces.
Absar is a gunner who has not commanded any important division and has not held any important staff position at Major General and Lieutenant General rank. Lieutenant General Javed Zia is currently serving as Adjutant General (AG). Javed belongs to Punjab Regiment and as Major General commanded 19th Division and then served as Director General (DG) Rangers of Sindh. After serving as Deputy Chief of General Staff (DCGS), he was appointed AG. He has not commanded a Corps which eliminates him from the race.
Lieutenant General Shujaat Zamir Dar is currently Chairman of Pakistan Ordnance Factory. Shujaat is from Punjab Regiment and has performed reasonably well as Inspector General Frontier Corps (IGFC) of Balochistan but he has neither commanded a Corps nor served as senior staff officer. Lieutenant General Mohsin Kamal is currently serving as Military Secretary (MS).
Mohsin is from Punjab Regiment and well respected by his peers for his professionalism. He has held important positions of Force Commander Northern Areas (FCNA) and commanded important Rawalpindi based X Corps. He asked for reassignment due to personal health reasons. He would have been among the top three contenders for chief's slot but now his medical category precludes him from consideration. Lieutenant General Jamil Haider is currently Director General (DG) Arms at General Head Quarter (GHQ).
Jamil is a gunner but has neither served as a senior staff officer nor commanded a Corps. Lieutenant General Muhammad Nadeem Taj is currently commanding Gujranwala based XXX Corps. He was military secretary to General Pervez Musharraf and held several important appointments under Musharraf. He served as Director General of Military Intelligence (DGMI), commanded prestigious 11th Division, served as commandant of Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) and then Director General of Inter Services Intelligence (DGISI).
He fulfils all the criteria for army chief post but his closeness with former President and army chief General Pervez Musharraf (Retd) and being the junior most among the top contenders (number eight on seniority list) makes him a less likely candidate. However, Nadeem can be considered the dark horse in this race and how this can play out will be described later.
This now leaves us with two top candidates for army chief position; Lieutenant General Khalid Shameem Waynne and Muhammad Yousaf. Khalid is from a military family. His father Colonel Arshad Salim Wayen commanded 20th Punjab. Khalid joined his father's battalion and later commanded it. As a Brigadier, he commanded two infantry brigades including the tough assignment of the command of 323 Brigade in Siachin.
He commanded School of Infantry and Tactics and Quetta based 41st Infantry division. He also served as DCGS at GHQ. He is currently commanding Quetta based XII Corps. He meets all the criteria for the army chief post and being the senior most Lieutenant General at the time of General Kayani's retirement makes him the top contender. Yousaf will be second in seniority at the time of selection process.
Yousaf is a gunner and has gone through the usual command, staff and instructional appointments required for promotion to Lieutenant General rank. He has served as Deputy Chief of Staff (COS) to former President Musharraf. He held the prestigious position of Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) and also served as Vice Chief of General Staff (VCGS) at Major General rank.
He is currently commanding Bahawalpur based XXXI Corps. It is very likely that next army chief will be either Khalid or Yousaf. The little known fact is that Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) General Tariq Majid will be retiring six weeks before the retirement of General Kayani.
It is a norm in Pakistan army at Lieutenant General rank that if a junior officer is promoted, then usually superseded officers ask for retirement. Keeping this in mind, one scenario is that if a junior officer is appointed CJCSC six weeks prior to retirement of General Kayani; it will force some senior officer and potential contender into retirement thus making room for the candidate who is considered for the chief slot.
If every body decides to do away with suspense and appointment of new army chief is announced at least two months before Kayani's retirement then there will be lot more clarity about the process. In my view this is a preferable approach which will help in smooth transition and will avoid intrigues and bitterness to some extent.
One scenario is that Khalid being the senior most is given CJCSC position and six weeks later number two Yousaf becomes army chief. If Khalid is the choice then there is a technical hitch and appointment of Yousaf who is junior to Khalid as CJCSC six weeks before army chief selection becomes problematic. The only way out will be to appoint a naval or air force officer as CJCSC.
There is a real possibility that President Zardari may appoint a senior air force or naval officer to the CJCSC post. There is lot of resentment among naval and air force officers about appointment of CJCSC since the creation of this post about three decades ago.
It is essentially a ceremonial post and real decisions are made by army chief, however it is a four star position with associated perks and privileges. Air Force and naval officers feel that army chiefs during their rule give this appointment as a reward to loyal subordinates. There is some truth to this feeling because General Muhammad Zia ul Haq appointed Muhammad Iqbal Khan, Rahimuddin Khan and Akhtar Abdur Rahman while General Pervez Musharraf appointed Muhammad Aziz Khan, Ehsan-ul-Haq and Tariq Majid to the post.
If a naval or air force officer is appointed CJCSC, it can make the choice of army chief easy and some technical problems can be avoided. In any event, whether the appointing authority is President or Prime Minister as long as one of the top three contenders is picked for the army chief post, army as an institution will accept the decision. If civilian leadership attempts to shuffle the deck of senior brass too much, they risk alienation of armed forces and some unintended consequences.
In selecting of Naval and Air Force chief, President Zardari has followed usual norms and if he follows similar rules in the selection of army chief, there should be no negative fallout. Pakistan army chief is the most powerful member of the higher decision making process of the country and no matter who is selected, he becomes his own man in lieu of power of the office he holds. A smooth transition in the winter of 2010 will be beneficial to both the country's nascent democratic process and army.
The wild card in this game is Lieutenant General Nadeem Taj. If someone wants Nadeem as army chief, then at the time of retirement of current CJCSC which is six weeks before the retirement of army chief, Lieutenant General Muhammad Yousaf is appointed as CJCSC. The hope will be that Lieutenant General Khalid Shameem Wynne being senior to Yousaf will go with the tradition of asking for early retirement.
The two senior contenders being out of way, among the next six senior Lieutenant Generals, only Nadeem has all the qualifications to be selected for the army chief post. The million dollar question is why Khalid, the top contender for the post will ask for early retirement. He will happily pass on the tradition of asking for early retirement on being superseded for the most powerful position of the country.
One can only hope that both Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Muslim League have learned correct lessons from history. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in his quest for absolute power picked the most subservient and junior officer as army chief (General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq) in 1976 and Nawaz Sharif in 1998 picked an 'orphan general' who liked his late night parties as army chief (General Pervez Musharraf). Bhutto and Sharif thought that their hand picked army chief will be simply their tool.
Zia not only toppled Bhutto but later sent him to gallows (Zia had made Bhutto Colonel-in-Chief of Armored Corps and by confirming the death sentence of Bhutto as army chief became the first general in world history who hanged his own Colonel-in-Chief). Musharraf toppled Sharif and first sent him to jail for life followed by exile.
General Abdul Waheed Kakar was appointed army chief by then President Ghulam Ishaq Khan after a bitter fight with then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. However, later when Ishaq created a constitutional crisis or an impasse in his fight with Sharif, Kakar forced both of them to resign. Kakar didn't favour his supposed benefactor.
Army chief once appointed is his own man and he will chart his own course. This does not mean that he can liberally use his long stick to keep everybody in line. Negative fall out from recent long military rule of General Pervez Musharraf, negative public image of the army and in the presence of a resurgent judiciary, it is not likely that army chief will lead from the front. However, he still wields a lot of power behind the scene.
In view of difficult problems faced by the country, civil and military leadership needs to work together. Every effort should be made by each party to stay in their own lane and avoid intriguing against the other. A reasonable working relationship is essential where civilian leaders should avoid interfering with military's sphere while military should stay clear of decisions which are prerogative of civilian rulers.
Military should also resist the temptation of favouring their partisans among civilian contenders of power. The real task of new army chief will be to continue the current momentum of focusing on professional matters and resist the temptation of micromanaging other affairs.
In current atmosphere of mistrust among higher decision makers of the country, it will be a herculean task to keep working relations but if civilian and military leaders comprehend the enormity of the task at hand and are cognisant of the serious risk of complete meltdown of the state, there is hope that they will work together for the future of their country.
The writer is attached with a think tank in Canada