The threat of unrest comes at a time when President Umaru Yar'Adua has been out of the country receiving medical treatment for more than two months and there is uncertainty over who is in charge of state affairs. "It is sufficiently clear at this point in time the government of Nigeria has no intentions of considering the demands made by this group for the control of the resources and land," MEND said in a statement emailed to media.
"All companies related to the oil industry in the Niger Delta should prepare for an all-out onslaught against their installations and personnel," it said. Attacks by MEND on Nigeria's oil and gas industry in the past few years have prevented the Opec member from producing much above two-thirds of its capacity, costing it about $1 billion a month in lost revenues.
Nigeria's light crude is popular with US and European refiners as it is easily processed into fuel products and previous attacks by MEND helped lift global oil prices to record highs near $150 a barrel in 2008. Violence has subsided in the Niger Delta since Yar'Adua's amnesty programme last year led to thousands of militants surrendering their weapons in exchange for clemency, a monthly stipend, education and job opportunities.
MEND has been severely weakened by the departure of field commanders who accepted the amnesty, but oil infrastructure is extremely exposed and it takes little to launch an attack. Many of the young fighters who handed over weapons last year spent months at a time living in camps deep in the creeks, getting high on locally-made gin, and have known little else.
Security sources say only a fraction of their weapons were surrendered and it would be easy for guerrilla groups to reform under new field commanders. A resurgence in attacks would be a major setback to Yar'Adua's embattled administration, already dealing with legal challenges to its authority in the president's absence. The threat of violence also comes as Africa's most populous nation prepares for elections in 2011, with campaigning expected to begin in June. As in the past, analysts fear political rivals could fuel unrest in the Niger Delta to their own ends.
Some analysts had warned Yar'Adua's reluctance to hand over to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, who is from the Niger Delta, during his medical absence could in itself spark renewed unrest in the region. But Jonathan is not particularly popular in his home region and MEND denied it was motivated by the impasse in Abuja. "It has nothing to do with the absence of Yar'Adua. MEND has no interest in the ongoing debate between both men," the group said in an email to Reuters.