The legislature, it is being touted about by members of the opposition as well as the leadership of those prominent parties who did not contest the February 18 elections, is subordinate to the executive as a consequence of the 17th amendment that gives the power to dismiss the assemblies to the president as well as the right to appoint the chief of army staff and members of the judiciary. The implication is obvious: the power of appointment confers a sense of loyalty, bordering sycophancy, on the one appointed.
History of course disproves this basic thesis as time and again elected presidents like Ghulam Ishaq Khan, as well as chiefs of the army staff, appointed by a duly-elected prime minister/president have connived to dismiss governments. The same is, of course, historically not true for members of the senior judiciary, who, in the past, frequently succumbed to pressure from the executive to give decisions in favour of a coup or dismissal. This fact is increasingly being raised by the PPP in an effort to counter the damage done to its leadership in the aftermath of the Supreme Court verdict declaring the National Reconciliation Ordinance void ab initio.
There is general agreement that President Zardari is playing on the back foot these days. This, analysts argue, is patently evident from the content of his recent speeches taking the brewing of a conspiracy as given, a perception that is fully endorsed by the entire PPP leadership, including Prime Minister Gilani. The President's line of defence against the conspirators is attack, an approach that may well find several adherents amongst those familiar with literature on the art of winning a war. If you do not want me, the President has implied, the entire democratic system will collapse and the country will be destabilised. Coming in the wake of the Prime Minister's statements of support for the President, in recent weeks, as well as his leaked statement that he would sit in the opposition benches if President Zardari is dismissed as per the minus-one formula, has perhaps stayed the hand of the conspirators for the time being.
There is, however, agreement that the President does not consider the conspiracy as having ended as he continues to exhibit a markedly different behaviour pattern from the past year and a half: travelling within the country, giving public speeches and attempting to win the hearts and minds of the PPP grass roots for starters while continuing to threaten the conspirators.
In this context, the recent politically explosive scenario in Karachi, the bungling of Rehman Malik, the Interior Minister, who in his drive to appease the MQM, opted to launch a Rangers' operation against Lyari's die-hard PPP supporters, which led to not only severe chastisement by senior PPP members and its grass roots supporters, but also by the MQM who denied that the operation was launched at their behest. At present, the President is in Lahore and is engaged in heavy politicking in the province in an effort to counter what is considered as the pervasive Sharif-influence.
The president is a symbol of the federation and therefore, he should ideally not engage in partisan politics; yet President Zardari is also the leader of the party, his power base, and no one expects him to abandon his power base in favour of a largely ceremonial office with all powers handed to his handpicked prime minister. Even if he does transfer all powers on paper, as is expected within a couple of months, it is unthinkable that Prime Minister Gilani will become more assertive. Besides, this is hardly likely to be a selling point for the opposition as the Pakistani public is well-trained to accept a president who wears dual hats.
So who wants the President out and why? Much has been written on the army not taking kindly to the clauses of the Kerry-Lugar Bill or the President's earlier stance on India. The judiciary is seen to target him personally with reference to the Swiss case. The PPP stalwarts are implying that this judicial bias against the President is due to the superior judiciary's bias in favour of the Sharifs - a bias perhaps reflecting Nawaz Sharif's contribution to its restoration on March 16, 2008, though the PPP high command is not emphasising this point as, contrary to general perception, it continues to claim that the government restored the judiciary and not any action on the part of any party leader, read Nawaz Sharif, or entity, the army. Kaira more recently, has tried to raise the sceptre of a closer relationship by citing a newspaper story, since denied by the paper as well as the two involved, that the Chief Justice of Pakistan met the Chief Minister Punjab in the dead of night. And finally, the PPP claims that the third party to the conspiracy is a section of the media.
Or in other words, a conspiracy is being hatched between the judiciary, the media and the establishment, though the PPP high command is at pains to delink the army chief from the conspiracy, and its target is President Zardari. Like the US officials who have been directed not to make any statements on the drone attacks, the actual conspirators are not being named. Is this a credible thesis? One would tend to agree for three reasons.
First and foremost, unlike Benazir Bhutto and her father, the President is neither personable nor educated, nor indeed has a history of running the party with those loyal personally to him. His approach to politics is, therefore, similar to what a neocon like Bush brought to the realm of politics, domestic and international: you are with me or against me? Those the President considered to be with him were elevated to positions of power, irrespective of whether they were elected members of the National Assembly or not, and those who were not were sidelined. This has, of course, created resentment within some senior party cadres who may develop the capacity to challenge him at some future date, defined as a time when the PPP is out of power after losing at the polls. Second, he has been unsuccessful in one of his major objectives: to generate financial resources, in the form of grants or loans, from abroad in an effort to reduce economic pressures on the hapless people of this country. He had originally talked of 100 billion dollars, while twenty-two months after taking control, his government is struggling to make do with less than 2 billion dollar annual assistance. To get President Obama and Prime Minister Brown to flank him at one of Friends of Democratic Pakistan meetings is unlikely to win him kudos by the Pakistani public. Third, the level of deprivation has risen not only because of the higher inflationary pressures due to the withdrawal of subsidies as part of IMF conditions, but also due to the failure of the government to check profiteering by cartels of essential commodities and its inability to arrest loadshedding attributed mainly to the inter-circular debt whose responsibility after twenty-two months rests with the government. This is not even taking note of high level of corruption and nepotism in appointments. Thus the conspirators are most likely to be backed by the general public, but then someone has to mobilise and channel public anger.
The establishment and the media cannot topple the President at present. They have the power to keep the conspiracy alive, but not to bring it to fruition, not unless the public is actively mobilised. Nawaz Sharif, considered the only leader who may succeed in mobilising the public, has agreed not to destabilise the government by unconstitutional means; Sharif's critics argue that he is staying his hand till the 17th amendment is scrapped.
Thus, at present, it is the judiciary alone that may give a verdict that would unseat the president. Be that as it may, if the government defies the verdict, and there are some indications that it may, the other non-pillars of state may come to judiciary's aid in enforcing its judgement. And therein lies the threat to democracy.