Its plant finally commenced commercial production on June 1, 1988. The project is a Pak-Saudi joint venture and involved initial capital outlay of around Rs 1.5 billion with foreign exchange component of around US $45 million. This made it one of the largest enterprises in the private sector. Pharaon Commercial Investment Company Limited holds 84.06% share capital while the public holds 15.94% shares.
ACPL's cement plant was designed by Uzinexportimport (UEI) of Romania, all equipments, and ancillaries and steel structures were supplied by UEI and limestone crusher and packing plant was manufactured by O&K and Havor and Boecker of Germany. Thus, it is with a sense of pride that Attock Cement claims pioneer status in bringing the pre-calcinations/pre-heating dry process technology to Pakistan.
INTRODUCTION
Discerning the situation in global market is not difficult, as the global financial crisis has caused slow down in almost every economy. With the crisis came slow down in certain sectors especially financial sector and real estate. Pakistan also witnessed political turmoil and increased inflation in the last year. This badly affected many sectors and cement sector is one of them. With increased taxes and inflation coupled with less demand for the real-estate, this year had to prove difficult for the cement sector.
The Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) also fined the cement companies for cartelization, which has been challenged in the High Court by certain companies. Despite all the odds, Attock Cement outperformed the market and there was 243% increase in their profits. The industry continues to expand at a feverish pace and total installed capacity reached at 44.1 million tonnes, higher by 18% as compared to previous year.
Though traditionally Pakistan has seen impressive consumption growth of 7% in terms of CAGR but the period commencing from 2002 through 2008 witnessed average growth of around 15%, which was un-precedent. However in 2008-09 the local demand registered a negative growth of 14%, which was mainly attributable to political uncertainties coupled with global turmoil. During the year under review the company achieved overall clinker capacity utilization of 98% as compared to 80% in the preceding year. This significant increase in the clinker production was achieved due to full utilization of line 2 capacity.
PROFITABILITY
Sales increased by 70.49%. Increase in revenue was attributed both to increase in volume and net retention. The volume increased by 25% and net retention by 37%. The domestic sales registered a negative growth of 1% because of higher exports made by the company, which increased by 412%. The ratio of sales revenue from exports was 29% as compared to 11% in the preceding year. Local sales accounted for 71% of total volume during the current year as compared to 89% in previous year. The increment in inflation is also evident by 49.24% increase in cost of goods sold.
The following graph shows that they quickly realized from last year's drop in Gross Profit that they required a change in strategy. Hence, ACPL looked outside Pakistan and went for markets in which there are countries that are in process of rehabilitation. Falcon Cement became a popular product in Iraq and Somalia. This led to 412% increment in export sales and then ultimately profits surged up. The expenses have also increased with a humungous rate. The selling and distribution expenses increased by 350.47% and the general and administration expenses increased by 36.56%.
The high increment in sales and distribution was because of 394.02% increase in export cost. Now this increase is mainly because of increased exports. The cost of goods sold has increased by 49.29%. Considering the high rates of inflation, this seems to be very large. There was a 60% increment in fuel costs. This seems reasonable as the early part of the fiscal year saw high prices and the latter part still didn't see in reduction of fuel prices in Pakistan. Moreover, 45.15% increment in water and electricity prices seems quite justified as the energy prices have risen and they will continue to rise as the IMF loan tranche demands increment in utility prices.
The rise in their distribution costs is quite astounding. This primarily is resultant of high fuel prices while major cause of general costs may be attributed to power shortages. The increment in profit also led to better return on assets. The return on assets showed an amazing 288.9% increment the return of equity increased by 253.65%. Now these positive figures are reinforced by 201.14% increase in profitability. This increase in profitability has given them significant room to plan for expansion in the years ahead.
The increase in profit margin may be attributed to increased exports that have been witnessed this year. The Iraqi cement industry is not only under capacity utilized but also it is not meeting the demand. Hence, it seems to be a wise decision that the company has taken this year. Due to the increased demand, their capacity utilization increased from 76% to 95.89%. This helped them to stretch their sales. This increment in ACPL profit is one of the highest in the industry preceded only by Lucky. Their strategy to diversify markets and increase exports seems to be a viable strategy in times of falling domestic demand.
LIQUIDITY
The market is performing well and it has started to recover but the investors are largely uncertain about the future. In this context, most companies have planned to be prudent. This is a wise decision as high interest rates allow them to not only earn more but also have liquidity. ACPL has placed 650 million rupees in accounts that are yielding 12%-13.5% yield. This high interest rate is expected to remain there until inflation drops. The loan tranches of IMF have strict condition regarding reducing inflation. According to State Bank, the expected inflation this year would be around 20% and next year it will drop to 6%.
This shows that interest rates will be dropping somewhere in next year. However, rates would be relatively high only the following chart approves their decision and shows the rate of interest in Pakistan for past couple of years. The inter-company analysis shows that Attock Cement is the most liquid company in the industry. They have capitalized on high interest rates and are earning in short term, getting both profits and liquidity. This seems to be a wise decision because currently money market is the safest investment with such high interest rates.
Keeping this in view, they have put 100 million rupees in a certificate of investment that would give them 13.35% on maturity in August 2009. Likewise they have put around 206 million rupees in income funds. This allows them to let their income grow along with receiving of periodic cash flow. Similarly, around 76 million rupees worth investment shall allow them to have liquidity plus growth and that also with risk. The following graph shows how Attock Cement outperformed others in terms of current ratio:
ASSET MANAGEMENT
Since ACPL has diversified its markets and moved out of Pakistan, there were a lot of positive effects. These markets firstly had high demand that led to high prices. Last year all the companies faced problem as the construction sector and the real state sector was facing slow down. The high-demand markets helped them to reduce their operating cycle by 28.70% to merely 77 days. As evident from the graph below that the average number of days to sell inventory has reduced by 27.88%. This reduction can be attributed to high demand for cement in Iraq and Somalia.
These countries have a huge shortfall, which is expected to remain there for a couple of years at least. The inter-company analysis shows that the operating cycle is quite high. This is not because of the time required to collect receivables that is on average only two days. However, the issue is because of the time required to sell inventory that amounts to 75 days. Their operating cycle is nevertheless one of the highest in the industry that requires improvement.
They are making more sales with respect to their inventory, as it is evident from 38.15% increase in inventory turnover. However, the total assets turnover increased by just 3.7%. This minimal increment is mainly because of 18.77% increase in the total assets of the company.
DEBT MANAGEMENT
The company has reaped huge profits and these profits have not been designated for investment in fixed assets. This is evident by 35.29% increment in owner's equity and this increment in shareholder's equity is because of the retention in the increased profits as mentioned before. The times interest earned has improved significantly. This has been witnessed because of 22.9% drop in their financial charges. One of the factors that led to decrement in the financial charge was that they didn't take running finance.
This was because of excess liquidity that they had due to increased sales. Likewise, last year they had taken short-term loans to manage liquidity that was not needed today. Although the bank charges increased because of general increment in interest rates, however they managed to reduce their exchange losses by 60%. This reduction was due to relatively stable rupee in latter part of the second half year. The finance costs also reduced substantially from Rs 113 per ton last year to Rs 70 per ton during the year ended June 30, 2009 mainly because of interest rates hedging executed by ACPL by entering into interest rate swap agreements with a bank.
The capital structure of other companies in the cement sector reveals that Attock Cement along with Lucky Cement has lowest debt to asset ratio. High profits are obvious reason but this may also be attributed to conservative approach in terms of expansion. This might be their aim in the following years as they have huge cushion of equity to support heavy debt needed to acquire assets.
MARKET VALUE ANALYSIS
The company has performed very well in terms of profit in this fiscal year but the market prices have fallen as compared to past year. This fall is not something awkward as the KSE crashed this year. Considering the drop in the KSE, this drop is not a lot. The book value stood greater than the market price. This shows that the stock is under-priced and it must increase. Secondly, the earning per share increased by 343.12% as profits reaped up by 343.12%. However, this was not complimented with the increment in share prices.
The share prices decreased by 40.92%. This drop was mainly because of crash of the stock market. However, it seems that Attock Cement has recovered very well despite the fact that it went down to merely Rs 30.28 on 23rd January 2009. This case P/E ratio to decrease by 82.81%. The book value also increased by 35.29% largely due to 45.19% increment in the appropriated profit.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
The conditions of the economy will continue to improve and the market in the local setup will also gain strength. The rehabilitation of IDPs and development projects announced by government also show a promising sign. The export strategy should be continued and they can earn on foreign exchange as well. They might not be able en cash upon the decreased prices of coal and fuel due to deteriorating rupee in comparison of dollar. The company plans to go to the African markets.
It seems to be a very wise decision, as they would capture the market where there is high development potential. If the public sector development projects increased then the Keneysian demand will increase and cement industry will have an excellent and prosperous fiscal year.
COURTESY: Economics and Finance Department, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi, prepared this analytical report for Business Recorder.
DISCLAIMER: No reliance should be placed on the [above information] by any one for making any financial, investment and business decision. The [above information] is general in nature and has not been prepared for any specific decision making process. [The newspaper] has not independently verified all of the [above information] and has relied on sources that have been deemed reliable in the past. Accordingly, the newspaper or any its staff or sources of information do not bear any liability or responsibility of any consequences for decisions or actions based on the [above information].