After more than four days of barren talks and gathering gloom, sources told AFP that most of the biggest trade partners - the United States, the European Union, Brazil, Australia and China - had finally made progress. Doubts remained however about the willingness of India and Japan to move forward.
"There has been a breakthrough in negotiations," one diplomatic source told AFP. A spokesman for the World Trade Organisation head Pascal Lamy confirmed "very encouraging signs" from the talks. Whatever has been agreed between the leading powers - no details have been given so far - was being discussed late Friday by a wider group of 35 ministers from other nations that are involved in the talks here.
European Union Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson emerged from WTO headquarters during a rest period, saying "there has been progress made" but cautioning that it was "not a final deal." One diplomatic source said that India was not budging from its position and that one of the reasons for bringing in the larger group of ministers was to pressure the Asian giant into compromising.
"India is still not giving way, so the idea was to bring all 35 countries in to persuade it to give way," said a diplomatic source. Indian Commerce Minister Kamal Nath has insisted all week that he will protect his country's millions of subsistence farmers and nascent industry, which are shielded from imports by tariffs levied on foreign goods.
The Doha Round of trade talks was launched in the Qatari capital seven years ago with the aim of producing a new pact to help poor countries enjoy the fruits of freer global trade. But the process has been delayed by disputes between the rich developed world and poorer developing nations, principally over subsidy and tariff levels for farm and industrial products.
Throughout this week, the two sides had settled into a familiar pattern of demanding concessions from each other and refusing to budge until new offers had been put forward. Such brinkmanship has led to the collapse of talks on several occasions since the round began in November 2001 and a sense of pessimism was growing among observers about this week's huddle.
Anything approved by the 35 parties would still have to be cleared by all 153 WTO member states. A new pact can only be adopted with unanimity. Lamy had warned earlier on Friday that the talks faced failure unless countries showed flexibility and determination. One source said he had put forward a new draft agreement in talks with the seven powers on Friday.
Among new proposals was a further cut in the US annual farm subsidies to 14.5 billion dollars (9.2 billion euros) and a clause to prevent developing countries from shielding entire sectors from tariff cuts. Failure would be a major setback for the delayed Doha process and observers believe WTO members would need a break before continuing to negotiate. Some have even suggested the round might be abandoned.
"The situation as I see it is critical, edging between success and failure," Lamy was quoted as saying earlier Friday by his spokesman, Keith Rockwell. "We need to change gears very quickly to turn things around." Diplomats and negotiators had said that Friday would be make-or-break at the end of gruelling week of bargaining that had produced scant evidence of progress.
"It has been dark. The only unknown is whether this darkness would lead to a deeper abyss of darkness or if there is light beyond the darkness," said one diplomat before news of the "breakthrough" on Friday. "As is so often with such negotiations, it is only at the last minute when a breakthrough can be wrought. We'll see."