"If that's your timeframe it's getting more and more knife-edge as each hour goes by," New Zealand's ambassador to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Crawford Falconer, who chairs the farm negotiations, told Reuters.
"I can't see myself how ministers could meet in March. The way things are going it would require a miracle. April is still possible," he said after the WTO's 151 members completed a two-week review of a revised negotiating text he had produced.
Falconer's comments followed a warning by EU trade chief Peter Mandelson that the whole Doha round, launched in late 2001, faced a big risk of failure. A breakthrough on a trade deal would inject confidence into a world economy overshadowed by financial turmoil, but diplomats say if it does not come soon it will be sidelined by the US election and next year's change in administration in Washington.
SUBSISTENCE FARMERS: Falconer's draft, together with one on industrial goods, are intended to pave the way for a ministerial meeting around Easter, which falls this year on March 23.
Although agriculture accounts for only about 8 percent of world trade it is central to the talks because of its importance to developing countries, where millions of people depend on subsistence farming for their livelihoods.
Developing countries want rich nations to open up their farm markets, with the European Union lowering tariffs and the United States cutting trade-distorting subsidies.
In return rich countries want developing nations to open up their markets for industrial goods and services through tariff cuts -- something sought by some developing countries which see opportunities in South-South trade.
Falconer said negotiators were willing to move, but the speed at which they were eliminating differences was out of synch with the timetable set by political leaders.
One technical issue that is blocking progress revolves around the system for rich countries to protect politically sensitive products from tariff cuts. The definition of such products and how to treat them depends on consumption data that rich countries have yet to produce. But developing countries are wary of revealing their hands in agriculture, industry or services until they know how the sensitive products will be treated.
Falconer said a proposal to produce the data by the end of next week would not give other countries enough time to crunch the numbers if the Easter deadline is to be met. The European Union says it will issue them early next week.
Similarly WTO members remain apart on how developing countries can shield products they say are important for food security, farmers' livelihoods or rural development from the impact of market opening. WTO members will consult among themselves next week on the farm talks and meet on March 10 to decide the next steps.