In his testimony to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, the CIA chief also warned that radical elements in Pakistan had the potential to undermine the country's cohesiveness. He also said that Pakistan army's management of nuclear policy issues-to include physical security-has not been degraded by Pakistan's political crisis.
THE FOLLOWING ARE EXCERPTS:
-- Pakistan is a critical partner in US counter-terrorism efforts, but continues to face an array of challenges complicating its effectiveness against al Qaeda and other radical elements operating in the country. These challenges include coping with an unparalleled level of suicide attacks ordered by Pakistan-based militants, many of whom are allied with al Qaeda. At least 865 security forces and civilians were killed by suicide bombings and IEDs in 2007. Four hundred ninety-six security forces and civilians also were killed in armed clashes in 2007 to make a total of 1360 killed in 2007. Total casualties in 2007 including the number of injured security forces and civilians exceeded the cumulative total for all years between 2001 and 2006.
-- Pakistan is establishing a new modus vivendi among the Army, President Musharraf, and elected civilian leaders now that Musharraf has stepped down as Army chief. Pakistani authorities are increasingly determined to strengthen their counter-terrorism performance, even during a period of heightened political tension that we expect to continue over the next year.
-- Radical elements in Pakistan have the potential to undermine the country's cohesiveness. The terrorist assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto could embolden Pashtun militants, increasing their confidence that they can strike the Pakistani establishment anywhere in the country.
-- The killing of Bhutto weakens the political party in Pakistan with the broadest national reach and most secular orientation, the Pakistan People's Party Parliamentarians (PPPP). However, sympathetic voters could give the party the largest number of Assembly seats in the upcoming national elections.
-- The Pakistani government's current plans will require intensified and sustained efforts to orchestrate the administrative, economic, educational, legal, and social reforms required to defeat Islamic extremism and militancy. Pakistan's law and order problems arising from tribal and religious militancy can be effectively addressed in the long term only if police and paramilitary forces can more reliably provide justice and border security. All of these administrative reforms require effective political leadership focused on improving the capabilities of Pakistani institutions for effective governance and development of economic opportunity.
PAKISTAN NUCLEAR SECURITY: We judge the ongoing political uncertainty in Pakistan has not seriously threatened the military's control of the nuclear arsenal, but vulnerabilities exist. The Pakistan Army oversees nuclear programs, including security responsibilities, and we judge that the Army's management of nuclear policy issues-to include physical security-has not been degraded by Pakistan's political crisis.
AL-QAEDA: Al Qaeda and its terrorist affiliates continue to pose significant threats to the United States at home and abroad, and al Qaeda's central leadership based in the border area of Pakistan is its most dangerous component.
Last July, we published a National Intelligence Estimate titled, "The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland," which assessed that al Qaeda's central leadership in the past two years has been able to regenerate the core operational capabilities needed to conduct attacks in the Homeland:
-- Al Qaeda has been able to retain a safehaven in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) that provides the organisation many of the advantages it once derived from its base across the border in Afghanistan, albeit on a smaller and less secure scale. The FATA serves as a staging area for al Qaeda's attacks in support of the Taliban in Afghanistan as well as a location for training new terrorist operatives, for attacks in Pakistan, the Middle East, Africa, Europe and the United States.
-- Using the sanctuary in the border area of Pakistan, al Qaeda has been able to maintain a cadre of skilled lieutenants capable of directing the organisation's operations around the world. It has lost many of its senior operational planners over the years, but the group's adaptable decision making process and bench of skilled operatives have enabled it to identify effective replacements.
-- Al Qaeda's top leaders Osama Bin Ladin and Ayman al- Zawahiri continue to be able to maintain al Qaeda's unity and its focus on their strategic vision of confronting our allies and us with mass casualty attacks around the globe.
-- Although security concerns preclude them from the day-today running of the organisation, Bin Ladin and Zawahiri regularly pass inspirational messages and specific operational guidance to their followers through public statements.
-- Al Qaeda is improving the last key aspect of its ability to attack the US: the identification, training, and positioning of operatives for an attack in the Homeland. While increased security measures at home and abroad have caused al Qaeda to view the West, especially the US, as a harder target, we have seen an influx of new Western recruits into the tribal areas since mid-2006.
Monitoring Desk