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  • Mar 7th, 2006
  • Comments Off on SCRAs set new records amid erratic movements
Ever since January 27, when Special Convertible Rupee Accounts (SCRAs) surged to a record level of $416 million during FY06, balances in SCRAs had been rising and declining in line with the trends in the stock market.

By February 28, the balances in these accounts had surged to $472 million--an all time high figure in the history of SCRAs. Earlier, the balances dipped to around $439.5 million between February 17 and 20 after reaching $445 million on February 16.

Between February 21 and 27, SCRAs first rose to $457 million on February 24 and then to $470 million on February 27--a record in its own right. These figures were reached in the wake of massive profit-taking in recent days occurring in the country's stock exchanges. The KSE 100 Index plummeted to 11,547 on February 24 and then to 11,192 on February 27 after reaching an historic high figure of 11,609 on February 23. On February 28, the Index surged once again to as high as 11,456.

In line with the trends witnessed in movements in the SCRAs and the KSE 100 Index, portfolio investment has also been rising and stood at $400.5 million during July-January (FY06), compared with just $92 million in the comparable period of FY05.

According to details, during FY06 so far, the largest portfolio investment came from USA ($298 million) followed by UAE ($51 million), Hong Kong ($46 million), Singapore ($10 million) and Switzerland ($9 million).

Last year, USA, as usual, was also the largest investor ($50 million) followed by UAE ($24 million), Switzerland ($12.5 million, UK ($12 million) and Hong Kong ($3 million). The most prominent among the emerging investors was Hong Kong which raced to third position among major players during the current year in comparison to the last and fifth position the previous year.

During February, as a whole, the largest amounts of foreign currency, intended for future portfolio investment, came from USA, amounting to over $93 million, compared with over $66 million in January. Other major inflows during the month found their way to accounts maintained by investors of UK ($14 million compared with an outflow of $5 million during January), Bahrain ($10 million compared with nil change in January) and Singapore ($1 million compared with an outflow of $0.2 million in January).

Accounts witnessing major withdrawals during February belonged to investors from BV Island ($12 million compared with nil change in January), UAE ($10 million compared with a larger outflow of $12 million in January), Switzerland ($5 million compared with a much smaller outflow of $0.7 million in January) and Hong Kong ($3 million compared with a matching outflow in January).

Minor outflows (in order of amount withdrawn) also took place on account of Luxembourg, France and Sri Lanka. While France withdrew any amount for the first time in the year in February, Luxembourg and Sri Lanka had nil or almost nil withdrawals during January. It may be underscored here that withdrawals could mean both disinvestment, meaning remittances back home, and withdrawals for fresh portfolio investment, while inflows could mean both fresh inflows and deposit of sale proceeds of old investments.

As regards movements in SCRAs on February 28 alone, there were three inflows (viz., UK: $4 million, BV Island: $2 million and Hong Kong: about $1 million) and two outflows (viz., Switzerland: over $4 million and USA: $0.2 million). The continuing stability of balances in March ($447 million on the second day) are a pointer to the fact that non-residents do wish to remain present in the market to reap any future gains. It also alludes one to believe that foreigners are possibly foreseeing the market to turn bullish in near future. (Report by [email protected]).

Copyright Business Recorder, 2006


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