Friday is first notice day for deliveries on the January and the combination of a strong difference or carry between January and March and the firm cash markets should keep soy deliveries at modest levels, they said.
"Farmers aren't selling very many beans so the cash is holding up with some cash locations trading at an inverse (to futures)," an analyst said. "With that in mind and looking at the carry I wouldn't expect more than 400."
There is an abundant supply of soybeans which, on the surface, should lead to heavy deliveries but analysts said the soy remains in strong commercial hands, which should keep the delivery tally to a minimum.
And, the carry or difference between the January and March contracts at nearly 12 cents per bushel, premium March would favour a scenario of holding soybeans for delivery in March rather than delivering them now, the traders said.
"I don't think the current ownership will want to give up many beans right now," the analyst said.
There were a few outlooks for heavier deliveries, up to 1,500 lots, with that opinion based on the amount of soy registered with the Chicago Board of Trade for potential delivery.
The Chicago Board of Trade late Wednesday said 1,307 lots of soy were registered. Registration of a commodity means it is eligible for delivery, not that it will be delivered.
However, huge soyoil registrations at 4,621 lots led traders to expect heavy soyoil deliveries of between 1,500 and 2,000 lots while no soymeal is expected to be delivered despite registrations of 260 lots.
"There was no meal put out in December and I don't expect any tomorrow either," the analyst said.
Chicago Board of Trade floor sources said up to 200 lots of rice is expected to be issued for delivery on the January rice futures contract.