A shift in interest rate turnover out of Asia to listed exchange-traded products from the over-the-counter market could shore up the CBOT's Treasury debt segment at a time when volatility at the long end of the yield curve is low, Dan told reporters on a conference call.
A new CBOT telecommunications hub in Singapore that is expected to launch in mid-November will allow customers throughout Asia to connect directly to eCBOT, the exchange's trading platform.
"Buyers of US debt tend to be located in the Asia-Pacific time zone, and have tended to trade in the OTC market," Dan said.
CBOT on Tuesday is expected to report October volume up about 4 percent from a year ago, below the growth rate of 17 percent seen for 2005 through September. That mostly reflects the trend in CBOT's Treasury derivatives, where year-on-year growth this month has slowed to a trickle.
"We have to recognise where the volatility has been - it has been all at the short end of the yield curve," Dan said.
The CBOT's biggest contract is 10-year Treasury note futures, which comprised about 32 percent of total exchange volume in 2005 through September.
Other factors, such as US Treasury's decision to start issuing 30-year bonds again in 2006 after a hiatus of more than four years, rising long-term rates and worries about inflation, could change that dynamic, Dan said.
Dan declined to comment on price action in CBOT Holdings since the Oct. 19 initial public offering, or specify when more shares - above the slim 6.1-percent of shares outstanding in the IPO - might be released.
CBOT Holdings, parent of the exchange, went public at $54 per share, above the forecast range of $45 to $49 per share, and traded as high as $134.50 by Oct. 24.
In midday trading on the New York Stock Exchange CBOT was at $106.20, down $5.80, or 5.1 percent, and among the biggest stock losers on a percentage basis for a second consecutive day.