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  • Oct 29th, 2005
  • Comments Off on Treasuries higher, take respite from heavy sell-off
US Treasury debt scored modest gains on Thursday as soft economic data and a sharp drop in stock prices gave bonds a break from a week of heavy selling.

Government debt also received some support from General Motors, which was again making headlines - this time because of an accounting investigation by federal regulators.

"This led to unfounded bankruptcy fears and a spike up in prices," said David Ader, US government bond strategist at RBS Greenwich.

Fears over GM, which denied rumours that it could file for bankruptcy protection, also triggered hefty losses in stocks , which in turn brought some asset allocations into fixed-income.

Indeed, benchmark 10-year notes climbed 7/32 for a yield of 4.56 percent, down from a seven-month high of 4.61 percent reached on Wednesday. Two-year notes rose 2/32 to yield 4.35 percent, compared with 4.38 percent.

It was a welcome reprieve for the brave and few remaining bond bulls from a week-long downward spiral in prices that flicked benchmark yields about 20 basis points higher.

Some of the selling was driven by mortgage players, who could step back into the market if the next key ceilings in yields - 4.60 percent and 4.63 percent - are breached.

But for now, five-year notes had crawled up 4/32 for a yield of 4.43 percent, down from 4.46 percent on Wednesday. The 30-year bond was up 11/32 and yielding 4.77 percent.

The day's serving of economic news was also on the weak side, lending the market some added impetus.

September durable goods orders fell 2.1 percent, more than the 1.1 percent forecast by Wall Street, although analysts warned that these numbers were volatile and prone to big revisions.

August orders were revised to a 3.8 percent rise instead of the 3.4 percent gain reported earlier.

The housing sector also appeared to be cooling. Sales of new single-family homes rose 2.1 percent in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.222 million units.

But the sales pace for June, July and August were all revised lower, and September's rate came in below the 1.250 million unit pace expected by Wall Street economists.

Still, few market observers thought Treasuries were safe from further selling, what with the Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates by another quarter percentage point to 4.00 percent at next week's policy meeting.

Wall Street is also bracing for another rate increase in December and probably one more in January. Rate futures imply a fed funds rate of 4.5 percent by the end of the first quarter of 2006.

The next test for bonds will be Friday's advance third-quarter economic growth data. Third-quarter growth is forecast to rise by 3.6 percent against 3.3 percent in the second quarter.

Traders will also pay particular attention to the personal core personal expenditures index, an inflation measure closely watched by the Fed.

Copyright Reuters, 2005


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