Brazil shipped 995,712 60-kg bags of green coffee between October 1 and 24, according to the Council of Green Coffee Exporters of Brazil, and traders said exports for the month will be much lower than the 2.34 million bags shipped in October 2004.
Exports of green and soluble coffee are seen falling around 20 percent to between 22 million and 23 million bags in 2005/06 (July/June) from 27.71 million bags the previous year.
Other coffee exporting countries won't be able to make up the shortfall and importing countries will have to draw down stocks, he said, noting hurricane damage to crops in Central America.
The world's No 2 coffee grower, Vietnam, is expected to produce at best a similar crop to last year's 840,000 tonnes, but it could prove around 200,000 tonnes less, according to traders in Hanoi.
Swedish quality arabicas for November-December shipment were offered at 8 cents a lb. under New York Board of Trade futures, 1 cent tighter than last week. December-June was offered at 12 cents under futures. Replacement value was 6 cents under.
Producers, who have already sold under the government's CPR advanced payments system, are waiting for prices to rise above 300 reais per bag before selling large quantities.
On Monday, good quality arabicas were quoted at 260/265 reais (bid/offer) per 60-kg bag, unchanged from last wseek.
The weakness of the dollar against the real also discouraged producer selling. If the dollar had kept its start-of-year value of 2.72 reais, instead of 2.260 reais currently, producers would be receiving 300 reais per bag, according to Santos broker Carvalhaes.