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  • Oct 26th, 2005
  • Comments Off on Soyabeans firm, rebounding from weakness
Chicago Board of Trade soyabean futures closed higher on Monday, recovering from early weakness as the market was oversold after last week's sell-off, with the turnaround in soyaoil supportive, traders said.

"The rally back in oil helped. There was commercial buying late," in soyabean oil, said Roy Huckabay, analyst with The Inn Group in Chicago. Helping the soya markets to rebound were the energy markets, which came off their lows late.

Soyabean oil has acted more like an energy product in the past month amid outlooks for increased demand for soya bodiless. November soyabeans closed 2-3/4 cents per bushel higher at $5.75, dipping to key support at $5.66-1/2.

The back months settled 2-3/4 to 6 cents higher. December soyaoil settled 0.28 cent per lb. higher at 23.76 cents, with the deferred 0.27 to 0.39 firmer.

Pressure stemmed from ideas that the US soyabean supply was growing due to a large US soya harvest and export demand that was not meeting government projections.

The US Agriculture Department reported on Monday that 32.7 million bushels of US soyabeans were inspected for export last week. That was within trade estimates for 27 million to 36 million, but off last year's pace.

Nearly half of the shipments were earmarked for China, the world's top soya buyer. "Exports are well behind year-ago levels. With every dip we find some demand but we have to see some something surprising to spark this market," one CBOT trader said.

US soya export inspections as of October 20 were nearly 114 million tonnes, down from 142.6 million a year ago. The US soya harvest was wrapping up.

USDA reported late on Monday that 87 percent of the soya crop was harvested, slightly ahead of trade expectations for 85 percent completion.

Meteorlogix weather said drier weather this week in the US Midwest would favour harvest, despite cooler temperatures. Some rains over the Corn Belt slowed harvesting but fields were expected to dry quickly.

Midwest basis bids for soyabeans were steady to firmer as farmers were light sellers as harvest was wrapping up. Crop-friendly rains in South America were also mentioned as a bearish factor.

Safaris, a Brazilian agree-consultant, on Friday estimated that Brazilian soya acres would be down 7 percent for the 2005/06 season.

Even so, production was estimated at 59.5 million tonnes, up 17 percent from the year before.

USDA currently estimates the Brazilian soyabean crop at 60 million. CBOT December soyameal rebounded to a firm close at $169.90 per ton, up 50 cents.

The back months were up 50 cents to down 40 cents. Weakness in US cash soyameal markets and worries about reduced export demand for soyameal amid the spread of the deadly bird flu loomed over prices, traders said.

Malaysian palm oil futures closed down half a percent, prolonging a weak trend from last week, after another drop in rival US soyaoil. Commodity funds were about even in soyabeans, sold roughly 1,000 soyaoil contracts and 500 soyameal, traders said.

Commercials bought about 1,000 soyaoil lots late, with Cargill and Goldenberg Hehmeyer among the buyers. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday reported that commodity funds extended their net longs in CBOT soyabean and soyaoil futures/options combined as of October 18.

But late last week, funds were liquidating their longs, CBOT traders said. In soyameal, large speculators reduced their net shorts, the CFTC said.

Volume was moderate. In soyabeans, an estimated 86,761 futures and 12,249 options traded. Soyameal trade was pegged at 23,847 futures and 1,947 options.

An estimated 23,942-soyaoil future and 4,689 options traded.

Copyright Reuters, 2005


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