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  • Feb 28th, 2005
  • Comments Off on Iran GDP growth falls further behind target
Iran's economic growth rate fell further behind target in the second quarter of the current Iranian year, but high oil revenues swelled its trade surplus and unemployment fell, Central Bank figures showed on Sunday. Figures published on the Central Bank's Web site (www.cbi.ir) showed year-on-year real GDP growth slowed to 4.0 percent in the three months to September 21, 2004. That was down from a 7.7 percent year-on-year growth in the same period a year ago and a revised 4.2 percent expansion in the previous quarter.

The current Iranian calendar year began on March 20, 2004. The government has targeted growth of 6.8 percent in the year to March 21, 2005.

Iran's economy, which boasts the second highest level of oil production in Opec, expanded 6.7 percent in the year to March 19, 2004 and 7.5 percent the year before that.

While growth disappointed, largely due to stagnant oil production, Iran's trade surplus was swelled by high oil prices.

In the nine month period to December 21, 2004, Iran recorded a $2.7 billion current account surplus, up from $973 million a year ago.

Ratings company Fitch in December raised Iran's long-term foreign and local currency ratings to BB-minus from B-plus, praising moves to privatise the state-dominated economy and saying high oil revenues had boosted Tehran's coffers.

But the rating agency warned that continued international concern about whether Iran was developing nuclear weapons would continue to weigh on the rating. Iran denies seeking atomic arms.

Citing figures compiled by Iran's Statistical Centre, the Central Bank also said the unemployment rate slipped to 10.3 percent in the third quarter of the Iranian year, down from 10.4 percent in the previous quarter.

Poor performance in the key oil sector as Iran's oil production levels stayed close to full capacity weighed heavily on the weaker GDP growth in the second quarter, the bank figures showed.

Year-on-year oil sector GDP was up just 1.3 percent compared with a huge 18.7 percent rise in the same quarter a year ago.

The non-oil sector expanded 4.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 6.6 percent growth a year ago.

Copyright Reuters, 2005


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