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  • Feb 17th, 2005
  • Comments Off on UK house prices to flatten this year, crash unlikely
The British housing market looks set to stabilise this year with house price inflation forecast at less than one percent and the chances of a prices crash seen as remote, according to a Reuters poll of 22 economists. This week's survey showed economists see only a 10 percent chance of a housing market crash in the next year, with forecasts ranging from five to 35 percent. The majority defined a crash as a sharp drop in prices of between 10 and 30 percent within a few months.

"Prices will ease back very gently throughout next year," said Philip Shaw at Investec.

"While we do not envisage an abrupt correction in house prices, a period of stagnation could be with us for some time which, given a likely rise in earnings, should bring house prices back towards fair value." The majority of economists - 19 out of 22 - said the UK housing market had turned and that a period of stagnation or falling house prices had begun, although there was no clear consensus on how long this cycle would last.

Drawing comparisons between now and the late 1980s when the previous housing market bubble burst, some economists said the current strong labour market would help avert a steep fall in prices.

A need to slow the property market in Britain, where two thirds of households own their own home, was one of the key reasons behind the Bank of England's five quarter-point hikes in interest rates since late 2003.

But while the housing market has slowed noticeably since the middle of last year, data on the sector has been mixed and has cast doubt on whether UK rates have peaked at 4.75 percent.

The Halifax house price index showed house prices rose for the second month running in January, reversing falls in November and October, while mortgage approvals - loans agreed but not yet made - rose for the first time in seven months in December.

And although data from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) showed house prices fell again in the three months to January, the rate was the slowest in four months.

Copyright Reuters, 2005


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