Currency dealers in Karachi believe that dollar would further lose, instead of gaining against rupee, as is being said by some analysts. Currency analysts believe that the rising current account deficit would not allow the United States to make dollar stronger. "Instead of rising, the dollar would either slip from Rs 59 or would remain around Rs 59 by the end of March," said Munaf Kalia, General Secretary, Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan.

Last week, a chief executive of a foreign bank predicted that despite weaknesses dollar would appreciate against Pak rupee. The banker said that current exchange rate is Rs 59.41 for a dollar. It would be Rs 59.50 in March, Rs 59.95 in June, Rs 60.20 in September and Rs 60.56 in December, 2005. These rates were coated for interbank market.

"Even in the interbank market the dollar would not gain against rupee and would remain close to Rs 59 by the end of March," he stressed.

Currency dealers said that only shortage of the greenback could gain against Pak rupee. They said there was no chance for shortage of dollar in near future as remittances are normal and exports are growing.

However, Munfa Kalia pointed out that the outflow of US dollars from Pakistan was not taking place through exchange companies. "We have to check through whom and why these dollars are going out from the country," he said.

He said that the outflow might be taking place through 'Hundi' and 'Hawala' people "but not through exchange companies".

Copyright Business Recorder, 2005