"The government said exports to China, South Korea and Japan surged but these countries are going to be affected by rising oil prices. So I expect Hong Kong's export growth to slow in the fourth quarter," said Daniel Chan, senior investment strategist at DBS Bank.
Export growth slowed sharply from a 5.8 percent increase in April-June. The data is adjusted for seasonal patterns. More than 90 percent of the territory's exports are re-exports to and from the mainland. Trade volumes have benefited in the past year as more companies have shifted production to China.
Exports in July alone totalled HK $183.6 billion (US $23.5 billion) and were 16.5 percent higher than a year earlier.
They were in line with forecasts in a Reuters survey for a 16.3 percent increase, although growth was smaller than an 18.2 percent rise in the 12 months through June.
Buoyant export growth and consumption have been drivers of the economy, which the government said this week was on course to exceed its 2004 growth projection of 6 percent.