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  • Aug 27th, 2004
  • Comments Off on Asian currencies: stocks prop up won, Taiwan dollar
Asian currencies were a mixed bunch on Thursday as the Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah fell while the Taiwan dollar and Korean won gained, even as major currencies kept to tight ranges.

Rising stocks propped up the won and Taiwan dollar like they did the Japanese yen.

The Thai baht hit 41.76, its weakest in a year, despite the Bank of Thailand's much-expected quarter point rise in its benchmark repo rate on Wednesday. It later recovered marginally as stocks also rose after Standard & Poor's raised its sovereign rating on Thailand by a notch to BBB+.

The yen rose to the firmer side of 110 per dollar and then fell back as major markets juggled with the decline in oil prices and their expectations for US GDP data and a speech by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on Friday.

Crude oil prices continued to extend their slide from Friday's peak near $50 a barrel, with NYMEX crude for October delivery below $44.

Against that backdrop, local factors dominated Asian currency trading. Traders spoke of real money flows into Asia in the form of equity investments in Taiwan and Thailand.

Taiwan's stocks hit an eight-week high and the Taiwan dollar rose to near 34 per dollar as the island's markets reopened after being closed for two days by Typhoon Aere.

The fall in US durable goods orders seen in data released on Wednesday spelt more risk for the region's currencies, analysts said. Already worried about the impact of higher oil prices on trade accounts, this was a sign exports too would be slower.

The Philippine peso steadied around 56.05 a dollar after a half-percent fall since President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's comments at the start of this week that the country was in the midst of a fiscal crisis.

Markets in Manila closed early on account of rain.

The Sing dollar was slightly lower and did not react to better than expected July manufacturing output data.

The rupiah hit the key 9,300 level, unable to benefit from the drop in oil as markets worried about the second round of presidential elections coming up in September.

Economists at UBS said in a note that oil prices had peaked but they had revised upwards their estimates for oil for the rest of this year and 2005.

"In an environment where oil stays well supported at a relatively high level, global growth trades are unlikely to do well for long periods, and the market will focus on yield from time to time," Bhanu Baweja of UBS said.

"Even here, the rupiah has not been a winner as the expected interest rate differential between Indonesian and US rates has fallen with US data, driving the market towards pricing in 2 percent fed funds rate by the end year," he said. The rupiah was in demand for much of last year and early this year for its high yield.

But Baweja said markets seemed to have priced in their expectations of rising US yields, so that factor might not weigh on the rupiah any longer.

Copyright Reuters, 2004


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