In the context of Sindh, the federal government needs to deal with at least two rather obvious and significant idiosyncrasies in the PBS data: (i) Karachi's population is recorded at 16.5 million which challenges previous data of in-migration and fertility rates and, in addition, shows a fertility rate lower than the national average; and (ii) Punjab's population growth rate has declined, Sindh's has risen marginally, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's has risen by a dramatic 1.3 percent and Balochistan's by 0.9 percent. This data challenges alternate data of out migration in KPK and Afghan refugees being counted as Balochis as per the provinces.
The MQM-P has also expressed concerns as the census results do not favour its current resource and job allocation from the federal pool. And all parties in Balochistan excepting Achakzai's Pukhtoonkhaw Milli Party opposed the census fearing the inclusion of 3 million Afghan nationals, a charge denied by the Chief Commissioner.
The PML(N) administration in its current tenure has been consistently accused of appointing not only its tried and tested loyalists to head important ministries/divisions to ensure that their line is followed, and in this context, the Dar-led Finance Ministry rehired retired Asif Bajwa as Chief Commissioner Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) in a consultant's capacity, but to favour those from Punjab (until recently all the members of the governing council of PBS were from Punjab.) To further muddy the waters and make the census results more controversial was the decision by the PBS to opt for: (i) conducting a traditional paper census instead of the more efficient and less expensive tablet-based exercise; and (ii) to use local software for data analysis (with limited features) instead of procuring it from DSR, a UK-based company, that offered to upgrade its software for PBS, with UNFPA agreeing to foot the bill; however, PBS continued to ignore this offer no doubt due to the Sharif administration's reluctance to hold the census at all till the Supreme Court ordered that a census be conducted which then prompted it to seek the upgrade from DSR - a company which expressed its inability to provide the upgraded software due to the Christmas holidays.
A census is an exercise undertaken by all nations with economic and political implications for federating units and/or ethnic groups within one province. With general elections scheduled to be held within the next 10 months political parties are naturally focused on the Delimitation Constituencies Act 1974 with Section 2 defining population "in accordance with the last preceding census officially published"; and Section 10 stipulating that "All constituencies for general seats shall, as far as practicable, be delimited having regard to the distribution of population in geographically compact areas, existing boundaries of administrative units, facilities of communication and public convenience and other cognate factors to ensure homogeneity in the creation of constituencies". Thus the census 2017 results would increase the number of seats in national and provincial assemblies, change the demarcation of constituencies with implications on political parties; and PPP's concerns with the census data have understandably resurfaced.
To conclude, the PML-N government has broken all past records of data manipulation during its over four years in power; and has done so in a manner that simply defies belief. One would have hoped that it would desist from the temptation to do so in the census because of its far-reaching implications on the ability to formulate appropriate economic policies and on the forthcoming elections.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2017