Since the end of WW-II, the greatest concern of politicians (and the dictators) has been job creation. Creating jobs is a surefire way to win votes. It is also a surefire way to avoid civil unrest, s and, above all, religious extremism. It is part of accepted social psychology that a gainfully employed person rarely becomes agitator or a terrorist. But where are the jobs going to be? What skills will be required - now, 10 years from now, and thereafter. The universities and think tanks of the world concentrate on this issue. I have just returned from a summer vacation in Texas, the US. I noticed that the employment pattern was different from what it was 20 years ago. Most chief executives see the economy getting better. The US is seen as the best place to invest - 87%. Followed by Europe (59%), China (58%), India (33%). In the US, the traditional employment sectors are holding firm - retail, fast food, travel and tourism. But the big winner is technology employment. Fortune 500 companies have come to recognize that whatever their original business, they all need technological expertise. The crucial area for investment (and job creation) are: advanced robotics, 3D printing, nano technology, cloud computing, virtual reality, etc.

In Pakistan, no formal projections exist to forecast demand. Most of the federal and provincial ministries dealing with a particular sector (petroleum, exports, etc.) have no clue about job creation in these sub-sectors. But if we were to extrapolate the trends of the last 20 years, the following job pattern would emerge:

Private security services: In the last 20 years, the fastest employment generating sector was private security services. The security threat was so pervasive that most institutions needed armed guards - homes, offices, shops, hospitals, malls, schools, universities, hotels etc. This is a labour-intensive sector. Not much training is required. Equipment is relatively cheap. Private security agencies have proliferated. Some employ as much as 10,000 personnel. This sector will continue to grow.

Military and paramilitary: Here again, the security environment has driven employment growth. Pakistan military personnel, at the lower level, have swelled in response to the threats and challenges. The paramilitary forces, too, have an increased manpower intake. But not everyone is inclined to take such rigorous assignment.

The media: In the last 15 years, the media as an industry has seen mushroom manpower growth. The employment opportunities in the media hasve exploded - across all levels, from the doorman to the anchorperson, to the technical team. Since this sector has a certain amount of 'glitz' factor, people gravitate to this sector. If you make it big as an anchorperson, you can become a national celebrity. All sorts of questionable people portray themselves as analysts or Tajzia nigars. Abundant employment opportunities are being created in the media - driven by the advertising budget of Pakistan, currently estimated at Rs 700 billion. Foreign funding also supports the media - whether good or bad for Pakistan.

Information technology: In the past 20 years, IT has added 4 million jobs. These range from the academic side (schools, teachers, universities) to vendors, to consultants to corporate. IT will continue to be a dominant job creator. The upscale off shoots of IT, e.g., automation, artificial intelligence are playing a major role in the G-20 (advanced) countries. Not so in Pakistan, at least for the next 10 years. But we now know that cyber security is as important as nuclear security. A cyber attack can paralyze an advance country like the US - its banks, hospitals, airports, etc. It can even rig an election.

Tourism: Travel and tourism is the largest industry in the world. It is also the largest employer in the world - close to 50 million people make their living off this industry. Sadly, Pakistan does not exist on the Agendas of Tourist operators. The essential 3 Bs are missing from Pakistan - beaches, broads and booze. At one time, the Federal Minister of Tourism was the brother of Maulana Fazlur Rehman. This was a great branding and marketing strategy (in reverse). Actually, Pakistan should face reality - it is not, it never was, and never will be a tourist hot spot. No job creation.

Education: In many countries, education is a booming industry, and a job creator. Campus, dormitories, janitorial services, etc., there are whole cities based around Universities - Oxford, Cambridge, West Point, Anapolis. Boston is the epicenter of at least 10 universities. Harvard has an endowment of US $ 28 billion (Pakistan's reserves are US $ 20 billion). In the last 25 years, education has generated a lot of jobs in Pakistan - from KG to PhD. Private schools, colleges and universities have proliferated - some with questionable credentials. In the years ahead, as Pakistan plays 'catch up', education could become a major employment opportunity.

In the international corporate world (Fortune 500 I'ntl), job creation is kept to a bare minimum companies don't hire people unless they are on a growth trajectory. Walmart is the largest corporate employer with 2.3 million. China National Petroleum has 1.512 million employees. Volkswagen has 0.628 million.

(The writer is the former Executive Director of the Management Association of Pakistan)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2017