Although the remarks of Hassan Iqbal give some hope of an improvement in the cotton crop estimates, the downward revision in estimates and that too by a margin of over 12 percent compared to the target in the CCAC meeting on 10th August, 2017 constitutes a cause of great concern. This is so because cotton crop is the mainstay of Pakistan's economy. It has a share of 1.0 percent in GDP and contributes 5.1 percent in agriculture value-addition. Besides, cotton is a cash crop for farmers and an essential source of raw material to the textile sector, enabling the textile industry to expand its base. Over 60 percent of Pakistan's exports owe their origin to cotton output and a large part of the country's labour force is productively engaged in the textile industry. It may be mentioned that cotton production has been declining or stagnant over the last three years, causing harm to the economy. Cotton output which was nearly 14.0 million bales during 2014-15 fell to 9.92 million bales in 2015-16 and was estimated at 10.67 million bales during 2016-17. The weaker than expected recovery in cotton production during 2016-17 was mainly due to a sharp decline of 14.2 percent in the sowing area on account of exceptional losses from previous year's pest infestation and low domestic prices at the sowing time that pushed growers away from cotton to other competitive crops like sugarcane and maize. During the current season, though the cotton output is likely to be higher than last year, it is not likely to reach the levels of 2014-15 or 2012-13. This is likely to adversely affect the economy in a number of ways. The import of cotton for the textile industry is a drain on the foreign exchange resources of the country. It is, therefore, high time our policymakers analysed the reasons for the shortfall in cotton production and rectified the situation in order to revitalise the economy. Some of the actions which could help farmers grow more cotton are the provision of good quality seed, fertilizers and pesticides at affordable rates at the appropriate time and some kind of procurement arrangements to safeguard the interests of farmers. Also, the government departments should be more proactive in training of farmers in the management of certain plant diseases like pink bollworm and leaf burning syndrome. Last but not the least, the government policy on sugarcane and sugar industry does not only lead to the misallocation of country's land resources but is a major cause of diversion of cultivatable area from cotton to sugarcane. A lot has already been said and discussed about this issue. Hopefully, the government will be able to resolve this issue in the larger interest of country's economy.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2017