The world in general, and Asia-Pacific in particular are mutating fast. Hard traditional alignments are blurring: India's intimacy with the US, yet friendly ties with Russia, while Pakistan's warming ties with Russia, including prospects of military cooperation are positive harbingers. It is even hinted that India and Japan may be trying to think of opening their own versions of 'corridors' but are hampered by funds and political will. This attests to the emulatory power of OBOR as an urge for regional cooperation.
Iran is set to enter SCO, too, but lately US-Iran and Iran- Saudi ties have run into rough weather. In the age of regionalization and globalization the SCO hopes to forge connectivity through trade, business and investments. The economic engine, in Chinese philosophy, would help smoothen national angularities and political distrust. Nowadays, no county can live in hermetic or splendid isolation: the pressing global issues of terrorism, poverty, climate change and disaster management, border security, cyber- security demand serious global collaboration.
It is expected that full membership would modify hard stances and create requisite sense of responsibility and restraint in national mindsets. Militants and terrorists might find it difficult to face the forces of moderation and cooperation.
The economic club envisioned would bring India, Iran and Afghanistan in its fold. Each one of them has positive rapport with China and growing disenchantment with the US. The US sees China as an 'aggressive power' for 'string of pearls' strategy, notwithstanding the US massive deployments and bases girdling the globe. Assertion of China's rights is construed as 'aggressive' and 'aggrandizing' behaviour. Most of Asia- Pacific counties do not subscribe to the US philosophy yet willy-nilly depend upon US to maintain necessary balance.
SCO, with the addition of two full members and regional powers - nuclear Pakistan and India - will become a truly energised organisation.
Pakistan-Afghan relations remain distrustful and tense. But hopefully under the influence and counsel of heavyweights like Russia and China may well improve. The two senior SCO members could influence their dialogue to come out of myopic and bickering mindsets. Moreover, ongoing SCO meetings, energy club, common market plan and other initiatives could nudge them towards co-operation. The optimists, including this author, view SCO in terms of "the more the merrier" adage. The world center of gravity is pivoting towards Asia-Pacific.
However, Pakistan as a nuclear state, has to be more circumspect than ever before in eschewing reliance on non-state actors, controlling home militancy, providing a credible national narrative and nurturing live and let live policy with immediate neighbours. India, on its part, has to sober up as a leading South Asian power and shun tactics of threats, hegemony and of 'isolating' neighbours.
Philosophically, time does not standstill. History has shown that inveterate enemies in Europe decided to forsake rabid nationalism - realizing the future benefits of greater economic cooperation. Diplomacy and dialogue way discourage hard-liners and militants from pressurising their governments against peace and regional cooperation.
Over the last decades, a major complaint against Pakistan has been its moral and physical 'support' to cross-border terrorism in furtherance of foreign policy. Frail security infrastructures, poor border management and control, poor neighbourly relations and militarized cum ideological foreign policy have vitiated the national image.
The prospects of regional connectivity and cooperation are inevitable - whether coming through destructive physical conflict, debilitating attrition or diplomacy and peaceful efforts. In other words, cooperation, mutual security and win- win paradigm are the wave of the future.
Organisations tend to grow overtime and add new functions. Overall, the SCO future seems generally positive with OBOR, an offshoot of SCO. With Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan and Iran joining the club it could grow into a robust, vibrant organisation - linking the region in a web of economic development - thereby deriving fruits of the old Silk Road. Of late, accepting English as official in SCO is good augury - besides Chinese and Russian languages and makes it more broad-based futuristic organisation.
In short, with full members, 'observer status' members and 'dialogue partners' on board, the SCO is the gravy train for many to benefit.
(Concluded)
(The writer is visiting Faculty at Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad; former Adviser COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad and ex-President, Islamabad Policy Research Institute. Presently, he contributes a bi-monthly op-ed column to Shanghai Daily, China)
Copyright Business Recorder, 2017